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Trading XAO: exercise to close the doors?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 27th Oct, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Got the following important Information from Comsec:

    Market prices not updating and no orders executed 27 Oct 2011
    ...
    We will keep you informed of any updates as they happen.

    ***
    Do you wonder what happened in ASX. Is it a exercise for XAO to close its door collectively or a system tech hiccup?

    All of Aussie in market and finance have expected XAO down for quite long time. If everyone does expect the same thing, it would make something happen under some conditions.

    Sometimes the tings would move into their extreme and once the things are in their extreme they would change toward to the opposite direction sooner or later. We are told by the sages in the market:

    1. You can not timing the exact rock bottom as you can not timing the exact peak.
    2. You shouldn't buy or sell for the absolute rock bottoms and peaks.

    However it seems all of retail market players tend to go a little bit far. They tend to remove the "absolute" and "exact" from the statement above. Truth or false are decided by this trick word, "absolute" or "exact" in my view.

    What perceptions become popular implicitly in the retail market players?

    1. You can not timing the market
    2. You can not profit to pick up a rock bottom
    3. All of bargain hunters would fail in the market.
    4. It is more risky to buy in the rock bottom than at the peaks

    So traders said you have to exactly follow your system's signals; value boys said you have to buy and hold; all of retail players said no playing for bargains!; Sell if anything has priced at discount; Sell all if all are in discount.

    Few know the difference between failure of rock bottom or failure of picking up rock bottom.

    Someone told me I have not sense at all. I agreed with it in full. If I have any sense, I should sell at the peak and lock the profit before the inevitable crash or correction. Do wonder who have the senses in the market if we just twist the words and don't know the tiny gaps between the truth and false.

    ***
    Is no timing becoming the excuse not to think?

    Let's cry for darkness in the rock bottom with the Sun rising under the horizon and cheer for brightness in the grand parties with the sinking Sun.

    Let's take what system could give us. We are alive for system and are dead when the system crashes down to ground!

    Let's curse XAO due to ASX failed to pause its trade processing.

    Let's die in the hopeless darkness since EU, China, and US have nowhere to go except the hell!

    ***
    XAO hopeless or you?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Oct, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Triggers you could not ignore!

    All of people around world just have one hope only now: a comprehensive plan from European leaders to deal with sovereign debt problems. This hope is very powerful and scared.

    It has defined a turning points of the crowd sentiment of the policy makers, market sentiment, behaviors of people in market, business, and economies.

    1. a trigger of domino effects
    2. a circuit breaker to stall the reinforcing of self-destruction of the market and economies.

    Swan said "We cannot afford any more stumbles or missteps from the Europeans. It's critical that we see a comprehensive plan announced by European leaders as soon as possible."

    One house has been on fire for long time. All feel threat to their own houses. We all worry the fire could spread to Australia over the oceans. Could the policy makers put the collective efforts to squelch the trigger of disaster? A very fearful question which has been asked again and again.

    Too many what ifs but few could get good enough probability evaluation. GFCI has triggered a lot of high consequence and low probability events. Could this world come back to normal and when?

    Some said we should ignore them but could you afford?
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Unexpected but not black swan

    ASX takes trading halt is a unexpected but not black swan type of event.

    It would hurt some system players since it does happen at a very important crossing points of the global economies and markets. It would definitely make a lot of people's gut crunched. However some would be happy if the market just do what people expect after the halt is removed.

    You wouldn't think that in a civilized world something like this could happen. But it does happen. How do you deal with the unexpected events? It is important. I didn't expect XAO would crash into GFCII before anyone else into it but it did happen.

    I would like to buy at rock bottom. Should I expect it is not rock bottom when I buy? We want to be sure but could we expect the market would put a sure gold for us which everyone could be seen. We have not vision for future so we have to depend on the system give the signal. What signals do you have when the system in halt?

    You want to timing the best time but what if it unfolds worst case? Do you give up to monitor the changes of economies and market sentiment because the paradox you could not avoid? Do we need to stay in the fired house to feel we are safe or not? Do we need to sense the angle and time to hit with our own advantages?

    Guess in the market is inevitable. So all of people in ruins tend to think we are all gamblers. What do you like to guess? What do you want to sense? Questions means confusion or efforts to get the better solution. What's for when you question?

    It is a great time to question for lesson if you have felt the pains. However do you question to confirm your glossy appearance or sense the market sentiment from the starting of the crash to its turning points?

    Do you repeat for your high IQ and cleverness or know you are ignorant and should be less arrogant to Mr. Market and others. Would you want to be humble due to your ignorance, prudence to avoid your arrogance, get lessons for your buffers for unexpected events or better for black swans?

    I did not happy when I was confused or could not be sure what would happen. Now I want to learn how could I am happy for confusion and set up the buffers for things which make me too happy or too fearful.

    I do want to challenge myself since I am really ignorant and tend to be arrogant in the market. You could win with anything else but you could not win when you hold both of ignorance and arrogance. You take a wrong action and then you would be hit by reaction.

    Do you know you are both ignorant and arrogant now? A real challenge at any given time in the market. Time and your action and reaction is all! Behavior decide who is loser or winner!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Oct, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Sky should be safe?

    EU at last decided to stop the contagion:

    1. EU took ‘‘extremely important decisions’’ to resolve the single currency area’s debt crisis."
    2. "All of this now requires a lot of work and a lot of quick work.’’

    Suddenly the sky is not so risky and suddenly all of the market players cheer to get some bargains in hand. Could you trust the claim and the market reaction?

    1. "What a remarkable jump after stocks showed additional strength following the "pent up" demand for trades earlier in the day!"
    2. "We believe the market has been sold off too far!" "Banks and major resource companies are presenting good opportunities for canny buyers."
    3. The news from Europe is propelling stocks and dollar higher, but market sentiment overall remains fragile.
    4. "Enjoy the rallies when they happen. Don't buy into the rallies. Buy into the dips." "Someone somewhere will say something that will upset this rally."

    The above were said by the professionals in XAO. Do you wonder XAO has been a vote machine for wind of fad?

    Do you dare to buy this true or false rock bottom? How should you buy for this true or false bottom? What's the signal from your system telling you?

    Could it be a turning point or traps for bargain hunters? Don't tell me you would be absolutely right for your guess work! I don't buy it! I would buy at rock bottom with great buffer for the rock bottom crash down! Did you do so before? Yes before November 2010 but unfortunately I kill my buffer voluntarily due to my insanity and stupidity in April 2011.

    Would you sell very soon? Don't know since China would be a hot point XAO would collectively worry about. Good sign was that China wants to soft its tight credit control in some investment and economies. Do you worry about XAO? Not really! Aussies would be behaved after XAO failed to lead this world into GFCII.

    Would you be excited by XAO to be 4,405? Yes very excited since at 3800 most of big Aussies in the market became shorters hopelessly while most of retail players cried to burn the money on fire as quick as they could.

    What's lesson you think is most important to you? Never and ever make excuses to rationalize the synchronize your mind with the market sentiment. What do you worry now? Not too much and most of damages have been down at 3800 of XAO. What would you do in future? Buying at rock bottom with great buffer; not allowing cost run and cash reserve depleted; with big paper profit keeping to warn me I could lose them easily; buying for margin of safety and selling in the bullish road; selling all in euphoria or before the anxiety of market as a whole.

    Are you sure you would do what you list above? Not sure since it needs behavior completely changed. I have tried very hard but ignorance and arrogance both controlled me sometimes.

    What do you hope now? I do hope XAO could challenge 5000 again before next March. I am preparing for a spade for my last defending line but I really don't think it is a pleasant matter to see the market has crashed to the point where my defending line stands at. I want to be a full-time market students.

    I have spent the time about economies, market sentiment, probability and black swans, strategic thinking, and philosophic matters for top-down or bottom-up approaches. I need to come back to the roots for quality and business economics. If XAO could be 5000 around, my portfolio would be very healthy again, which would buy the time for me to correct my mistakes!

    I do hope I could get a luck in next 3 months before I use my last defending line. I do feel XAO has been obsessed by the bad things externally for too long and logically it should be discounted greatly even it would be obsessed for longer time. EU stabilization is great for XAO now it would focus on what happen in China. If China could be softly landed(with risk to land hard), XAO should be easy to be around 5000.

    What if China lands hard? All of big Aussies would short XAO again and all of retail players would cry loudly again! We could see XAO touch 3800s again. So if there is a possibility for XAO to be 3800 again why don't you sell now? In my view it is possible but unlikely before next March. Are you sure? Nothing is sure in future.

    Do you have some special hopes for any your fishes? Yes, I do. I do hope BKP could get shale oil in two months. Its partner would drill and fracci a new well in BKP's tenement. It should get the idea there are shale oil or not there. If it has the shale oil and the amount is just about 1/10 of the assumption of its geological data, BKP would give me a 10 baggers. Of course if no oil, it would be hit down onto ground again.

    Do you have signals to confirm BKP' shale oil? Not at all that was why I sold 1,000,000 BKP at $0.02. I am ready to be rewarded or hit by the future results of the drilling.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Oct, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What if China lands hard or softly?

    There are possibilities china goes any way of landing hard or softly! It is a real risky and rewarded guess to any Aussie market players. Everyone can guess for their own benefit but could not decide what would be the way.

    Few have the guts and real vision in Western World to see the probability of landing softly since the view for future doesn't exist and the view in the past has been buried by its not transparent system. You could deny but you are really in paradox. I could not get a sure picture too but I need to get a not absolutely wrong picture with preparing for the landing hardly!

    I need to use the logic to get the sense rather use others' crying or cheering to make my own mind. Is it helpful to make right judgment? I think so. Is it useful? Yes, since it would mean XAO is at its rock bottom or not! It is not joke to see rock bottom crushes and it is not joke if it is a rock bottom for your future.

    A lot of retail market players hate timing but if anyone have remember what call, Pearl Harbor of the global economies, Buffett made in Oct 2008, you could not say value investors don't care the timing. They do strike for rock bottom and want to timing exactly right but they do know human can not do so without mistakes. So they use margin of safety to buffer their mistake to buy at the rock bottom.

    China and Asia are the bright lights in the ruins. People worry these bright lights could extinguish. It is critical for hopes and reliefs after Aussies have been beaten for nearly 28 months just because of the external events.

    ***
    What's a full picture in the sky now for the market crowd? “Arab spring, European summer, American fall and China winter.” China winter? Don't believe that? You could google for the ghost houses in China and a lot of problems there.

    The whole world have expected for chaos in China all year, and this time it is not because of the usual human rights abuses. There are more people complaining about China’s economy and housing bubble than there are complaining about the dissident arrests. What's a world without any spirit!

    We have US credit crisis, GFCI, EU debt trouble, and higher civilization. It is unacceptable a dictatorship nation could use capitalism market to get better economic results. It is just a time problem that we would have either a hard landing of China economy or a housing bubble to pop.

    We are all ready to say “See, I told you so.” It is the system signal and no one could change the course even RBA and BHP still don't buy it.

    continue...
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ...continued.

    It is horrible as a market player to see China is slowing from double digit growth to around 8% growth next year. How could China do their business so badly! However if you invert your mind you would find it could be the first slowing down by design and a slowing down because of the slowdown in the U.S. and Europe. So a stable EU should do some good things to Chinese economies. RBA has said for a long time that it could not make mind to crash the interest rate since it could not find hard fact for China to land hard.

    Some said China is a command and control economy. But a direct and sensible question is why China would let the economy crash into a hard landing? They should worry about occupation of TianAnMen more than occupation of Wall Street logically. They should not make so stupid decision to let their power gone with the hard landing for China or for themselves.

    Actually in my view, China’s economy is more about controlling the people than the economy. Yes the real estate has bubble and big bubble but Chinese never have the habit to spend more than their means since the old generations with experiences of poverty are still there. It should be likely to fall 30% like they did in Irish or US. There are the advanced asset destruction instruments such as mortgage backed securities and other derivatives. In China stock market is a huge Casino but few really dare to gamble on their own houses except those gamblers who are from head to feet.

    You like or not that China has done what no other country has been able to do in the last decade, and that is bring millions of people out of dollar a day poverty and into the working and middle classes. If you ever are very poor for mouths, you would try all to hold your houses for your family if no rent subsidiaries for the homeless as it is so popular in Australia, EU, Greece, and most of advanced economies.

    ***
    China is not only just not perfect but a lot of problems you could not believe. However China is really not a nation as Northern Korea since 1987. There are bad loans on the books in banks and no one has been able to truly decipher. If China wants, China just could write those off all of bad loans without the process as EU have to go through. It is not good but very effective to rescue the system for a while. How long to let the system stay there? I don't know as anyone else. Will it allow for some mid-sized and smaller construction companies to go bankrupt at the cost of losing jobs? I don't think so if it would mean social unstable.

    How do I see China's income disparity problems? I do believe they are not because of bankers and derivatives traders as in the advanced economies but they are the problems with the fundamental capitalism. They are the problem that “rich get richer” and more and more people are getting richer, allowing them to buy more second and third homes because investing in the markets is not very popular in China. Too many gamblers in the stock market is a wonder to the traders in Western economies. No clues at all they have! In China it needs more time for stock market as a barometer of economies.

    The facts are:

    1. Incomes are rising.
    2. Chines currency is getting stronger.
    3. Unemployment is stable if not down.
    4. Corruption is still a social problem and human rights abuses still exist
    5. China has its special phenomenon which is very frustrated to outsiders and weak sectors in China.

    You like or not but the fact is that Chinese middle classes and ordinaries feel not too bad to occupy TianAnMen very soon. Do you believe Chinese Government would trigger the occupation? If you say yes, you are idiots!

    ***
    An Occupy TianAnMen may just invention based on the guess work when few really understand what China is. It is not to say China doesn't need democracy and everyone shouldn't have the right to speak for themselves legally and fairly. China would change since rich middle classes sooner or later need the society to be fairer.

    But one thing is sure if China is going to protest uniformly in solidarity, they would not protest as anti-capitalism since you like or not it is the capitalism market has taken millions out of poverty and made China could predict 8% GDP.

    I know the generation who has the power in China now. They have the experiences as Educated Youth and they understand good economies are the basis of a fair nation and they don't believe the communism anymore but use it as flag to make the society stable for better economies. China is much more stable than in 1989 in historical prospective.

    All know the change for a free society need the cost and want to pay less as possible as it should be.

    Why do you write so much about China? It would affect my strategic thinking in the market. My mistakes since April 2011 mainly were caused by the fact I put my eyes on XAO only and didn't understand XAO could not walk steadily based on Australia economies only! Ignorance about EU debt crisis and arrogance caused by big paper profit burnt my head red hot then. If you head is red hot, no one could save you!

    Not too bad to get my mind about China, hope EU could be stabilized, XAO back to 5000, and then I would have chances to sell along the way for its recovery! Hope we will have a time when both genius and bum could make money!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Oct, 2011
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    No one dares to be bullish in trading forum!

    I am going around several trading forum and please to know all of retail traders are dumb about EU deal and XAO moved up after tech hiccup.

    As I expected retail market players are warriors to be consumed in the war and they just could not see the future always until the V-type or any type recoveries are in past. Market has to climb over the wall of worries always. You could fail to timing when the train leave away from station but it is always sad story that the train leaves without you!

    Still don't know whether or not the train would leave away the station but happy to see some fuels have been thrown into the engine by the EU policy makers. In depression human tends to ask very little. Without significant commitment but a deal to save EU, all of the world become so excited, which make me feel very good.

    No one like to be hit by someone for too long. Shorters don't dare to fight against EU policy makers. They act based on the sense of the wind and fad. They stop to short is a very significant matter in the market. I fully agree the market is a voting machine and no one really could tell what the train would go. However holding with the rebalanced portfolio when XAO rushed into GFCII, EU deal clears a very big huddle for XAO to be shorted cruelly!

    [​IMG]

    From the chart you can see XAO is hung over there with a tine string. It is at a position to be in hell or reborn. I could not blame the crying of warriors but I should feel shamed I could not save them better since I have turned myself as one of them.

    History gets its future form when we are fearful or greedy. I try very hard to convince me that this deal would hold the sky there. I would spend my time to feel and sense for my lessons from this dramatic 6 months. I paid big tuition fee and I should get lessons I never could forget.

    Hope I could be forgiven by my ignorance and arrogance. I would be behaved and try all to be behaved as a wise man! No one dares to be bullish in the trading forums are excellent good news since crowd must be consumed in the war!

    Life is always good if you are lucky in a train it just leaves away from the station even all of us say we could not timing the market. That is not important but you must be on the train! Are you sure the train would leave away? No! We need more confirmation and soft landing of China!
     
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Shock and surprise: Mr Market does so always!

    Do you feel shocked and surprised why EU policy makers dared to get a deal after they gave the words to make the people in the market in dilemma? They were reluctant to say they could get a comprehensive solution but at last gave the world a better deal even they still warned the world there would be a lot of works to do for the deal.

    Mr. Market always give some hopes and reliefs when the crowd of warriors give up any hopes. Since August 2011, it burst one after another hopes. How many retail warriors still have held their hopes? Mr. Market has just held the darkness long enough to beat the toughest bargain hunters out of the betting table and then it gives everyone on the table the cards as below:

    [​IMG]

    We still could not be sure what Mr Market really want or give out on the table in weeks but if Mr. market wants everyone to be a loser, he should do so much quicker. It launched a contrition war against the toughest warriors. Now he seems feel it last long enough!

    Fear is powerful and it could realize self-destruction of its owners as greed is. Very happy to see VXO drops down to below 26 again. EU deal should be a turning point and China should not tip off very soon. We should have a few months with less fear.

    Could we get a breath at least or better we get another V-shape recovery? We could not be sure we have got a rock bottom in 100% but it seems we have got the market low enough and the rock bottom should not be lower too much than that at the beginning of August 2011. It was not a too far but very long crunching time for the warriors who have burnt all of their money on the fire.

    [​IMG]

    If it could be another V-shape recover for global stock market, I swear I would never let the paper profit on the fire. I would behave as a matured man in the market. I would be organized, analytic, disciplined, and self-reliant to get my first direct goal!

    Happy to see the light even I don't know whether the cloud would bury it for some time more. Today is 27 Oct 2011 and we just have a few days to say bye bye to this notorious bad months, September and October. Actually we moved into bad months much earlier than usually. We got the bad months from August.

    Could we say we have a very bright Christmas days in the market? Let's hope it would become true! I have to say I have known my mistakes and problems. Please let me get more time to change my mind. I would be prudent to ride the train if it would leave away from this deserted, cold, pitch dark, and hopeless station!

    [​IMG]

    What if the train derails in future? You worry too much but do you get enough food and water to survive if we are not lucky again? Shut up and do it in silence! God blesses the people who struggle in hopeless and is annoyed by the cried and crazy crowd!

    Hi, hi, just one more, people say we only could pick up bottom in the past not for the future, is it true? Perhaps but I have seen a lot of people pick up the rock bottom when all said it was impossible. Really? Are we in the rock bottom? Shut up and just stay on the board. We would know it very soon. But I really feel bored to stay in a train which just stays in this crap station... I really bored...really...and no signal...

    But it would be amazing if the train leave away when we are sleeping, wouldn't it? Could you shut up with this amazing relief?
    [​IMG]
    European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso reacts during a tense debate at the euro-zone summit in Brussels.​

    Sh, tell you a secret that U.S. economy grows 2.5% in third quarter. Really? Yes, I got it in a US website. Haha, it is a good news. Sh! Let me show you:

    [​IMG]
    Aha, it is amazing!​

    Yes it is but do remember no arrogant to anyone and be alerted. I know and really know how bad if we are arrogant. Please trust me.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Oct, 2011
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    More money you want but what's interest or cost

    EU wants to get money from China. People tend to make it as a great news. But actually it is a matter about

    1. How desperate EU is and how nervous policy makers are about the possibility that Italy and Spain may also need bailouts too.
    2. If any Italy and Spain could not be bailout successful, EU and global financial system would be in risk to collapsed
    3. EU policy makers are forced to try and strike a deal with China and any potential investors.
    4. China and other potential investors would be happy to join but would ask favorable trade deals or some insurances and have to put the safety of the investment at first
    5. If you can pay a favorite interest, you could get lenders who would like to take more risks for their capital.
    6. No one(if not crazy) would like to see EU crashes down in ruins since no one could get any benefit from the crashing. So if safe the cost for EU should be reasonable.

    Definitely there are politics and national interests about the investment in EU.

    1. However money is money and business is business.
    2. You want to get money and you have to pay the cost.
    3. If you desperately need the money you would and should pay more. No free-money for anyone.

    If we understand all of ins and outs about the reasons why we want to get our own mortgages and why banks would like to lend our money to us, peel off the wraps of national interests and political twists, we could see EU debt crisis more clearly.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Oct, 2011
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Yep, get all into the hell!

    The shorters in XAO should be very happy now. "I told you" that XAO would take any chance to exercise for it to close the door. All seemed OK but now Greece will hold a referendum! Could you trust the hopes and reliefs? XAO should be in GFCII.

    The referendum will most likely take place in January but not now. What would it happen before and after that? Market does hate the uncertainties and Greece now just throw a time-bomb there. EU is hopeless and its efforts to contain the debt crisis seems gone.

    All we know how persistently Greece and Germany have pushed for this long-awaited deal, it seems quite unnecessary to risk undoing all the progress to date. This uncertainty is likely to extend the turbulent times and could drag XAO back to 3800 again. Don't hesitate but sell. It could be the last chance for you to sell before EU default.

    Papandreou is gambling at high stakes. He puts to shore up support for further austerity and economic liberalization. But he also worries about the mounting public dissatisfaction with far-reaching austerity measures and an ongoing recession.

    Crowd mood is very powerful in bad time. It could result in riots but policy makers would find less and less power to turn the economic course. It was said around 60% of Greeks were unhappy with the latest bailout package. When the government shed the free money to public no one worries but if you want to take money away no one would be happy.

    Papandreou put a hot potato in the hand of EU. He wants to stay in EU but worries no one supports him in home. If XAO could exercise the door closing when Greece could not exercise for all of EU default. it is a time who jump fence quickly is clever. Let's all jump up/down, up/down...until a certain prospective for Greece, EU, China, US, and this sky.

    Would you roll out again by this roller-coasters? Quick out or stay in the hell! Get relief or hope? Mr. Market would beat you until you don't have gut to feel them! No one could be more clever than Mr. Market if he wants to play the tricks. Less 1% GDP of the world could take the whole world as hostage. Who said leverage doesn't work?

    Want to use the signal from your system to predict crowd mood? Don't cheat yourselves. Get protection, Get the cash inflow, Get the margin of safety, Pick up the rock bottom with calculation, but never believe rock bottom could not crash down into the hell.

    What do you do now? Get a spade and leave my portfolio there. Actually I have sent out the CV for a spade. I want to bet on my lucks since the current result are the consequences of my mistakes since October 2010. This world and XAO needs GFCII more than anything else. If all want to put hem into the hell all would be there and then they would struggle to get out of there.

    Don't cry if you would be in hell. It would make you reborn! Why could China go so far? All of forces internally and externally had put it into the hell before 1977! US was nearly in the hell in GFCI. Greece and EU need to be in the hell. Australia wants to be in it most desperately!

    [​IMG]

    Could GFCII save the sky? I guess so! Cheer for GFCII!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Nov, 2011