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Trading XAO: happy time to you?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 23rd Jun, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    In the market, when it goes to extreme,

    1. some would be happy and some would be unhappy;

    2. some would be cheerful and some would be fearful;

    3. where are you mainly decide your feeling and mood without matter how great or trivial you think about you; what system you use; how quick you could stop the losses.

    4. if you have the profit you tend to be happy; if you lose you tend to be anxious slightly or extremely corresponding to how much you lose.

    ***

    In normal time, we could be very rational but in extreme time few could be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical. In the worst time we tend to enforce our feeling everything would be in the sink if not in hell. In the excellent time, we tend to be over-cheerful.

    In the worst time, the storm could hit you again and again and sometime it would continue until you lose all of your hopes.

    Is it happy time to you? Why? Please don't blame others and market, which are the backdrop we have to get used, good or bad! Could you take some surgery and take some irrationalities from your mind? Could you make you happy in next financial year with your market playing?

    ***
    Today and tomorrow should be the reckoning days for any bubbles which float any higher than the market lowest points this financial year since US Fed's words. Could be it worse next week? If more bad news in, it could be the time all want to stampede into the exit without matter what really would happen. The most risky place should be at the exits logically. Fortunately I have moved what I want to get out from there.

    Perhaps but the clever sellers are staying in the darkness and have not ideas what about next week. They should be fearful if they don't sell today they would sell lower next week and tomorrow, which would force most of them take action before the closing bell.

    However I admit I fail to be patient enough to wait for this reckoning days to buy with enough backup force! That makes me feel very bad and regret. It is my job to get the dirty-cheap fishes at the lowest price. I should feel bad to pay any higher than the lowest ones.

    We could claim we are intelligent investors or traders or speculators or businessmen or women but all we do is to know when to hold or unfold and take the corresponding actions in the market and business. Time is not important but everything to life and market. In the market all of the education and study is to the these time right. If they are wrong regularly all of studies and education are matters to waste the time. That is why so many genius fell down in the ruins. Could we be fools but win in the market regularly?

    ***
    Everything was so sure in the past and everything will be so elusive in the future. How could we be survival in the ruins, revival in the chances, and be happy in the exploration in the dance on tap for our own personal legend in the market? At the end of this special financial year, hope all we get the lessons for future and do better after this June.

    More in Wdongli's Blog
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 23rd Jun, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    To be irrational? Easy and really easy in market!

    After all in the market who dared to hold their position between April - present, such as me, have been beaten by Dear Mr Market for nearly 3 months.

    The pains need to be removed so that these people could get a time to feel relief. They hold since they could not image they could be beaten so hard. They hold since they still have hope. They should be some kind of bargain hunters for cheapness. They might not expect buy today and make killing tomorrow but they don't prepare this kind of treatment.

    Most of them hold their position since they expect things could be better but the seemingly never ending of the consolidation and the one after another crises into the sight of XAO, they become desperate for chance to be relieved rather than profit any more.

    They are fearful if they don't sell today, they would never have chances to run away with any money in hands. That is a great change psychologically to bargain hunters! I wonder whether these bargain hunters have better option. Me is a example.

    However I am trying to turn XAO up-down, right-left, and put it in the global context and the backdrops of its special behaviors. I want to put it into consideration my direct goal, getting my first draft of my business plan. I want to figure out how a good business people act in this similar situation after he makes the similar mistakes.

    Sale is going among the defeated bargain hunters to day, which give the chance for their relief. However is it logic path, depression, hope, despair, hope, and relief. What about optimism with the rationality and consciousness?

    It is not a easy game but interesting and promising if we could win out!

    Could you sleep with nightmare? It seems a lot of bargain hunters did. Me too but I know it is wrong to act just because the nightmare!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Jul, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO: Slaughter table for survivors of IT bust

    XAO turns itself into a slaughter table for the survivors of IT bust and GFC!

    Two great bubbles came and went away, which have buried the dreams of the first few generations who could use the advanced computer, system, and IT to gamble on the price patterns. The last bubble before GFC successfully destroyed the greed generated from a emerging resource bubbles. After all have known the destroying power of bubble burst, Aussies seem have known too much about the risks. So XAO could drop down by any news from any tiny corners around world. It has turned itself as a slaughter table.

    1. The day traders in IT booming times gone!
    2. The investors for buying and holding in the peak times before GFC gone!
    3. The bargain hunters who risks the dollars for pennies in this 2-year consolidation and crash have being gone!
    4. Big boys have destroyed huge capital of their clients and sucked the cuts in their offices.
    5. The contrition war has being grind all of warriors cruelly. Nearly all of retail players wonder if they have tomorrow!
    6. The themes of the market now are about how to be survival and safe to play but too late which should be talked about before the crash between May and present!
    7. Gold was the enemy of the IT warriors who really didn't know anything but stared at screen and clicked the buttons!
    8. Each generation has its own favorites. Would gold act as IT for the new generation of the market? Don't say it is impossible before IT bust who really thought they could lose their shirts in IT, the lovely and advanced technologies!

    What left in this table? The market turns into silence now. How many retail warriors, speculators, traders, and investors are still in the market? Some have predicted the crash and double dip for too long and then XAO has moved itself bit by bit back to the level of GFC! All of these damages are in perfect order!

    How many people now could cry loudly as a few months ago? How many now still cry for China tipping off, US debt crisis, and Euro disintegration in Australia? They have teared so long and they tears have been dried up even the blood are full of everywhere in XAO!

    Today I bought some BSL at $0.67. which I felt oversold on both of the internal and external fires. I would sell others to get my portfolio for rebalacing:

    1. lower the cost
    2. reduce the risk and get better chances without putting more capital into the market since I have used up what capital I should put into the stock market which is absolutely wrong otherwise I could buy in the blood for gems at extremely low price.

    Bear is powerful to slaughter the IT survivors but could not get rid of the new recruited warriors into the market! Is it sad to see these crazy generations of warriors gone in the market? Not all! Market has enough new human resources and bubbles would attract new crazy young men and women into it for slaughtering later!

    Could I be one of the survivors of IT bust and could revive in the future market? I don't know but if the Sun could rise again after November and stay with us for a few weeks, I would get my corner more stronger!

    If so I would be very happy since I am lucky enough to have more chances to run a successful warrior service business with the valuable lessons I have got in my part-time and full-time market study!

    Now I fully understand whom I am, a fool as anyone else in the market; I know I have not allow myself to be synchronized with the market sentiment; I know how warriors play in the market and know market is a war place rather than a easy money printer; I know I have to be organized for no loss of my portfolio, patient for big enough margin of safety, analytic for different scenarios for best probability of profit, and self-reliant to get the necessities and business development capital!

    Everything could send us on the fire and I will warn me never to let cost run and cash reserve gone!

    1. IT bust let me know some basic concepts in my mind was wrong which need the common sense and life logic to fix.
    2. GFC let me taste the fruits from the common sense and logic but also let me lose the necessary prudence
    3. The mistakes since April has resulted in very gloomy consequence, which destroyed all of my profit between Oct - April 2010.
    4. I was full time market student. I worked hard for one year but get nothing, which is unacceptable and unsustainable. We have to be self-reliant financially in the market.
    5. I have spent all of my time to recheck my mind and back to the basic again since I realized my mistakes. I have got my mind back and have got my lost capital back even the paper profit is still in Mr Market vault.

    I have one enemy in the market only! It is myself! I would try all to stop myself to beat myself down to the ground as those IT survivors who just gone from the market!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th Sep, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't let the sky falling down!

    Good news: "Top central banks to provide dollar liquidity!"

    The very fundamental matter for global economies is the financial system must be stable. No stable living, market, and financial system, no good economies around the world. Don't put fire on your house and then you have chances to think how to renovate or build new houses with good plan!

    So you could not say it is not a great news: the world’s top central banks announced Thursday that they will provide additional dollar loans to commercial banks in a move seen as a response to growing fears of a European credit crunch triggered by the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis.

    Good to see the market fully knows its importance.

    ***
    1. The move comes amid growing signs that European banks, particularly in France, are struggling to secure dollar funding in the interbank market due to worries about their exposure to Greek debt.
    2. It shows central bankers are willing to take aim at a key concern in the markets, providing at least a short-term boost to risk appetite.
    3. But the maneuver also serves to underscore nervousness over the banking system.
    4. Obviously, the pure fact we are in a situation where central banks deem it necessary to conduct such an operation should ring alarm bells in itself. XAO actually has priced itself as though the global economies are in double dip.
    5. The Euribor-OIS spread, which measures the difference between the three-month euro interbank offered rate and overnight index swaps, rose to 84.6 points on Sept. 12, its highest level since March 2009

    ***
    This provision of U.S. dollar liquidity to European banks - channeled from the Fed via ECB, BoE, and SNB - confirms our view that policy makers are not asleep

    1. They have learned lessons from the post-Lehman credit tightening that caused unwanted bank de-leveraging.
    2. Central banks are proactively coordinating to limit real economy effects of the incipient European credit crunch.
    3. Ultimately, the situation still comes down to how policy makers handle Greece, but the move is certainly a step in the right direction.
    4. The ECB is doing its job and hope it could let the crisis passed by soon!

    ***
    Hope the volatile market could be stabilized and looks it move into this direction! If so, I would get valuable chances to correct my own mistakes and let the rebalanced portfolio to run under the rising Sun!

    VIX moves down! It seems the fear has been stemmed for its self-reinforcing. If VIX could drop down less than 30, we all could have a relief for a while. Of course the fear should not be gone easily since Euro is still in its biggest troubles!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th Sep, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    We are never so clever in normal life!

    Market is a war place and you have to hope for the best but brace for the worst. The problem is now everyone in this market seems very clever and wise to do so!

    How low can it go? What if it is much worse than what we paid? No one can give the answers confidently. So all are in a big guess game! So everything is tumbled around the world. You could not say it is wrong. If you don't know what could you do?

    As pessimism continues to take hold, there is a growing band of traders punting the local bourse will again break below 4000 and possibly push as low as 3500 if European leaders cannot contain the Continent's debt crisis.

    XAO is ready to be beaten...

    ***
    Now not only warriors worries but politicians do worry too. RBA, Federal Government, Fed, and so on! How could you have any hope!

    The US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, commented: ''What is very damaging from the outside is not the divisiveness about the broader debate, about strategy, but about the ongoing conflict between governments and the Central Bank, and you need both to work together to do what is essential to the resolution of any crisis."

    How about China? It is assumed really doesn't matter! We all assume that Greece is really matter. It is assumed that this little Greece could would have killing function on international banking. It is a very scared assumption. It is that fear of the unknown generates the shockwaves, which reverberates through global market.

    We just could remember what we could. Who could forget GFC when global banking is interconnected in ways that even those running the banks seem incapable of fully comprehending.

    ***
    So is XAO out of touch with reality? Are the lemmings running too hard with the bears and sending stocks to unreasonably low levels?

    No one dares to say so. There are plenty of people are predicting Greece Default, Euro disintegration, China tipping off, no tomorrow for Aussies since resource would be gone and all of us would hold nothing at last!

    And while stocks appear to be attractively priced, the wildcard in both key ratios is ''projected earnings''. If the forecasts are overly optimistic, current share prices may be just right. And if earnings are lower than expected, dividends will be lower.

    Sound very logic but when we are overly optimistic usually? We had got lessons in GFC when we were beaten with the decoupling theories so that we would be tightly wrapped together with Greece and Euro now and in future. Their hell is Aussies' home!

    In this great prudence and cautiousness, all of business are trying all to get the cash, which is the king, right? We make the future. If we all expect something it would happen but what after that?

    ***
    Everyone, it seems, is hoping for the best but bracing for the worst.

    In this sense, the earlier is the Greece and Euro in default the better is XAO! Let the sky fall down as much as it could and then we would be happy! A white paper could be used to draw the most beautiful future bubbles!

    Everyone is so painful that it seems no tomorrow if no default!

    Are we really so clever? No, 80% or more would be wiped out. The shirt just is lost when you are clever or stupid as the crowd is! Moms and dads have been wiped out. Bargain-type traders are being wiped out. Big institutional big boys have in red for long time. Super funds have been the saving grave yard for years. Is the time the last part of losers in the market would be wiped out? I guess so! Could you be in the market after all which should be gone gone?

    Which could be next bubble? I wonder! I like to be at a position where the future bubbles would be. Why should I cry when all are crying so cleverly! I would continue to rebalance my portfolio for lower cost and wait for good black swans hit some of my fishes! There are always something which would surprises the crowd when they are extremely stupid and clever! 80% of market players are the losers and market would make the chances to let it to be true! They lose when they are extremely stupid and clever!

    What after all which should fall down fall down? Could Greece lead all into the hell? Everyone says so! I tend to be fearful when all are fearful but I do know it is wrong!

    Let the storm stronger and wipe all of these criers away and then we would have tomorrow under the rising Sun!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Sep, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Just some thoughts!

    Europe has become something of a four-letter word for Aussie market players recently. Weak European stock action has been paralyzed everyone here mentally.

    Retail market players have run away hopelessly between May - July. Big institutional boys dump everything whenever Europe is selling off. We could not tight coupled with the resource booming so we coupled us to bad news, assumption, and fire wildly.

    This in turn spawns bearish sentiment and weak opens in the Australia markets. Europe is the epicenter of Australia stock fears these days. Who care about economic fundamental? The idiots! Genius always jump over the fence based on the wind!

    Quick changed world needs the quick hands, which sounds very logic but is it true to accumulate the capital and assets for a fool? Genius usually use others' money and they could get fee or bonus for high frequency trading. If they lose the shirts, it is their clients to take the consequences.

    How about you? Jump to hear the sire around the fired houses to predict the fate of your houses? Sound very stupid but when everyone does so, someone would be quick enough to run ahead crowd for long and short in days. So the secret is running fastest and never behind the crowd. What if you run too quick and too fast? Don't worry someone would pay! Who? The stupid clients.

    ***
    Early every morning now, I guess the day traders carefully digest overnight world events to help them make trading decisions. Did any market-moving news emerge? How are the Asian and European markets faring?

    Since the major European stock exchanges are still closed in our days, so we guess based on the reaction in Asia and what happened last night. So if Asia drops down we down; if US down, we down; if nothing down we could lead the whole world down!

    That is new pattern XAO is following and some fancy theories have been developed. XAO turns to be so skittish and then no one could trust it anymore.

    How about organized, logic, analytical, and self-reliant personal characteristics to a market player? Naturally we like the quick money and when we could not get we would destroy them in days!

    Aussie warriors are making them to be a faith-lost generation, which started in IT bust! If you dare to count the number of retail market players who started in IT booming, you would find most of them just have gone!

    Is it sad? Not at all! If something and someone have to be gone they will be gone! Market selling is as the wild fire, which remove all of weeds in force.

    ***
    In normal times Aussie traders don’t pay too much attention to Europe. We tend to think the massive American stock markets or China demand for our resource since 2004/2005, which set the tone for the entire Aussie trading, which is true most of the time.

    But when the US have failed since GFC to lead and Aussie suddenly found no decoupling at all, the psychological gravity of overnight global action swells greatly and take the driving seat for Aussie market. Stock selloffs ignite fear, and worried traders eagerly look for excuses to sell.

    Could we expect XAO goes up tomorrow? Don't trust the good news please! XAO is predicting its 4000 or 3500 or 3000 someone said! However guess is always guess! The pattern based on the guess could be absolutely wrong!

    The ironic thing is these Europe fears and problems are nothing new. The big-spending, heavy-borrowing European governments have had debt problems for many years. Even the threat of defaults is well-traveled old news. You may remember that nearly-identical Europe fears actually sparked a euro currency panic in spring 2010!

    RBA seems keep its consciousness now! Market at last has to follow the economies. Could we get the floods or natural disasters every season if they are the same as those we had which have the odds such as one time for 100 years? Could oil down back to $10? Could gold crash down back to $200?

    Possible but unlikely! I believe it is roughly right!
     
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It looks as a ghost land

    It is quiet and silent as though the market pendulum stops to swing. That is strange for this rollers-coasters which has run in extremely speed for nearly 5 months!

    Both of bears and bulls have cuts and too much cuts. It is a feature of the typical contribution war which has last for so long and they need a necessary rest! Too much damages and too much sacrifices for the war which could not be named in history! Don't tell me anything about fundamental for normal life!

    The crying becomes despondence. Retail market players, the typical normal time warriors, have lost their war. Big boys have to check the wind direction to decide what they should do in a hour and a day without matter loss or profit! Is GFCII in the sight? Euro and Greece say it is but... It is a time no tomorrow!

    XAO turns to be a ghost land even the noisy medias don't know what, something new, should be said to excite or scare the habitats in this land! Tell good story, who buy it? Tell the sky is falling down? It has been told for too long! If you don't die in the silence, you have to rise up sooner or later!

    Where are the angles and good spirits? When any bubble has been ground into pieces and bargain hunters have been ground for a long enough time, you should have ideas where they are. They are gone forever or just suck their cuts in their caves? Who knows? They are in a rout anyway. It is really fearful where you just could see the ghosts!

    God would never bless you, the human!

    Is the reckoning day moving in?

    If Euro doesn't go to the hell, Asia could be in hell! If Asia and Euro could not be in hell, US and Australia could be in hell! If nothing goes wrong Australia could be in the ocean!

    All just wait and see!

    Hope some gold hopeful in my portfolio could be big enough and turn to be a airship when the reckoning day comes in!

    Hope some oil hopeful in my portfolio could get huge oil if it is a faked reckoning day by the genius!

    What if all should be gone? Who care about!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Sep, 2011
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why do ghosts haunt around in dream land?

    Wonder why people say Australia is a dream land but XAO turns to be ghost haunt land!

    1. News said "The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has been named the world's best finance minister for his work in steering Australia through the global financial crisis."

    2. XAO acts as though no tomorrow and people just cry everything as bubble and it has played the leadership to short everything down!

    Could you see the bipolar effects?

    ***
    No too many would disagree that Company fundamentals have a direct effect on individual share prices; economy fundamentals have a direct effect on the market as a whole. The catch of this assertion is it could be wrong completely in short term!

    Stock prices can (and do) move around for a whole host of reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with the underlying value of the company and economies as a whole. Some random events or bird-wing-flaps could change anybody's mood in second. All of us have experiences that sometimes we just feel very bad and in extreme some just want to trigger a gun to kill themselves.

    So what should you focus on? Logically you should focus on the long-term performance of businesses and economies.

    Think back to the Internet mania of the late 1990s. Wonderful (but boring) businesses such as insurance companies, banks, and real estate stocks traded at incredibly low valuations, even though the intrinsic worth of these businesses hadn’t really changed. At the same time, companies that had not a prayer of turning a profit were being accorded billion-dollar valuations.

    Here we just have too many boring businesses which have trained too many boring people who just count the risks and try to get the best return with the calculated risks. Just guess what would happen when everyone in Australia just would like to avoid the risky scenarios and get the gold in the ground?

    We could not say this world is a safe place for the investors at moment, right? So US up we down; US down we down more; We tend to exaggerate the risks and put the money into the brick and mortars. A visitor from US just could not figure our how we could afford since he could not understand if he didn't borrow all how he could get a house! The price is too high if you gear your house in 100%!

    Some of Aussie were very ambitious before GFC but most of us seemingly just lost some paper profit if we don't count the guys who bet their houses on the IT and resources! The things turn to be worse since Aussie dollar just keeps to go up, which successfully stops the international gamblers into this lovely market!

    So XAO turns to be a ghost land!

    Good news or bad news? It depends on your personal profile mainly! I like the exciting matters if I could afford and really hate the boring ghost land but I have to say it also stops me to lose the shirts again and again!

    If Australia economies could be good as last decade or decades, XAO would be a dream land with some tough limitation again. So it is not completely bad news if you could get your corner stronger!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Sep, 2011
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Roll and roll until...

    Another rolling day of the great rollers-coasters around the world. Another day no too many words for this rolling and rolling in our local presses and on-line news sites.

    The people has got the message that Euro could drag all of us down. The banks and government are saying we have better capability in GFC, which implies that we would get the GFC II very soon! So XAO just was quiet for a day only and today comes back its down rollers...

    The dirty-cheap fishing is a matter of the retail bargain hunters. Most of them have been in red since April. If the rollers-coasters continue its rolling for another 4-8 weeks, I guess nearly all of them would be out and just leave the die-hard shareholders there.

    What it means? All of bone in these dirty-cheap fishes would be ground into pieces and most of bloods would be gone and only the remains of value are there. The toughest bargain hunters would rise white flag.

    Contrition war is more powerful than the war as GFC. It is the war to get rid of any hopes and reliefs from the warriors. The good side is dirty-cheap fishes are not the toys of big boys and the dirty-cheap fishes usually lead the market crash long before it happens and when the crash comes in it becomes relatively stable. Why? It is because all of warriors who run in the ruins for bargains have fallen down and lose the energy to cry anymore!

    It is cruel but if the crash could come in tomorrow it would be very good for the dirty-cheap fishes! The short pains are better than sucking the cuts hopelessly! After all burnt down, you could not lose anymore!

    Hope EU default and Greece down in ash tonight! The worst is the best news to Australia and XAO! We need absolutely sure for future! In uncertainty we think how much we could lose and in certainty we would try all to get what we need or want!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 22nd Sep, 2011
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    No worries mates!

    Roll and roll... Roll until all money from warriors, big or small, turn to be vomits, and all of shorters just could shot themselves? That is the meaning of GFCII in my understanding! Could the roller-coasters roll the gold into the sky and let the moms and dads just see it as the last cake in the hands even it is just another faked cake in the sky?

    Roll...

    Roll, and roll...

    Roll, roll, and roll...

    Roll, roll, roll, and roll...

    Roll and keep to roll until no one worries about roll, roll...

    Roll...

    ...

    Gold has its value when its time comes in even the modern educated genius have predicted its another doomed day for nearly a decade! Human could not hopeless for too long. They could give up all but in the ruins they need the food, energy, and houses. That is why XAO dropped into the ground and jumped quickly after all of the crashes in last 50 years. If human could not revive they would try all to survive after all of their money gone!

    It is the rule to survive which would makes Australia is a dream land for sometimes at least if Euro is crashed very soon! Do you want our gas and resources? Give me the gold coins! Gold has no countable value when all of us don't trust $Euro, $US, and any paper money to exchange what we need. Financial system could be gone but exchange for needs would be there if human kind would be here!

    Of course the demand would be reduced greatly but better than things no one want, such as high tech or financial toys! Could we be in so bad situation? Possible but seems highly likely! If so and just if so, Australia has all to be self-reliant for years! We could be organized, disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant in the worst case!

    No worries mates, Aussies in XAO!

    Roll...