XAO: Want to burn for tax? Dow add more fire!

U.S. stocks turned sharply lower in early trading as a toxic mix of weak jobs data, a slump in the price of oil and persistent euro zone worries sparked a selloff in risk assets.

XAO has been in selling mood traditionally in this selling season. In case the burning fails to do its job, DOW put more fire for the sellers. Don't sell? God knows who would add more fire for you but your don't know. The pain is eating the soul of everyone who is trapped in losses and waves the flag of stop-losses. If you don't lock the losses to cut your salary down now you could be cut into the pieces. Anything could happen in the market. Who knows whether you have tomorrow. Somebody said it is bonus if you find you wake up tomorrow!

To me, I have sold what I should sold more than one month ago. The damage for me to move in too early has been done and I still believe my buying recently was not at lowest price but has big enough discount. I need to be indifferent to the selling and buying. Sometimes it is the wisest to do nothing but mull what lessons we could get. I am learning the tricks of financial statements analysis. We need the full views of the market and the roots we like to sit on. Zoom in for details and zoom out to see the storm or fad or future trends.

Honestly I hope DOW, Euro, China, and Middle East could add more fire for XAO sellers if the fire could not burn this modern world down to ground. The wild fire could kills Perennial weeds only if we could put it in some limitation. All of us know how great nature could do for us. Keep the sky there and fire more weeds out of the market!

Market is great which could thrill us for winning and losing without the cruel bloods. It is great to live in this great time! Life is good and really good.

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XAO: DOW disappointed me very much!

DOW disappointed me very much that it didn't keep to sell last night but recovered some losses and fail to motivate all of possible sellers in XAO to sell.

The fire is the most important element for bubbles out of market this financial year and store big energy to shoot next year. The more the selling the better for future market performance.

As a bargain hunter in the dirty-cheap fish circle, it is extremely important to be tough in buying which must come with the correct anticipation of the worst time and should be happy to see the selling on the fire.

No selling on fire no big discount. Have you seen any sale for closing the door? In the market if most of retail market players would like to sell for closing their door, you would be better off theoretically.

Cheer for the selling season even I still have not got good enough skills to play the dirty-cheap fishes when all who hold the losing position want to sell! It is not a matter of how genius you are but how you are tough to pay as little as you could!

***
Do feel very excited to see the words such as "When Misery Strikes..." everyday in the trading forums for sometimes while the criers become silent now generally. It is a sign at least more and more retail market players have capitulated in the fighting to go through the valleys of death.

You could not keep to cry for too long naturally. The best thing as a market player you should laugh and have the mood to laugh when most of the market could not laugh after they could not get any energy to cry. The crying consumes the scarce capital and bad emotion! You don't know how to fine tune yourself and then Mr Market would hit you until you give up to cry! I guess he is evil in this sense and would like to test your crying capability in the ruins. "You cry? Ok! I let you cry and cry until you could not cry for anything which is much worse than you could cry!" What after all don't have the gut to cry? Mr. Market would try to lure you laugh again slowly but seductively! We will laugh again since we need the laugh to make the life interesting again!

Want to be a winner in the market? You have to take the first class that is about "never and ever cry emotionally" but dance on tap to let you laugh in the time when everything is bad but no one could cry any more! Pains is too much for anyone to have the energy to tear!

***

You pay least and you would get the best in the dirty-cheap fishing business. For my personal interest, if you want to sell, you should sell for losses regularly!

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XAO: no tomorrow if you don't sell now!

The market is running to the exit collectively, while only three days are left for anyone to close the losing account. It has generated some desperate among the market players, who lost some significant money. Consequently we could see stampedes everywhere since to these sellers they don't have any other option.

***
I have made a series of mistakes and used up my cash reserve before the desperate stampedes, which forces me into consolidation and survival mode, that is I have closed all of my buying orders at the price which was unbelievable just in normal bad time. The consequence of my mistakes made me desperate last Friday.

Desperation always tell a truth that its owners have no option. It is the most risky sign in the market. It is necessary for the owners of the desperation to check what's wrong with them! When you are desperate, you would lose your consciousness and choose the worst scenarios for your future.

***
Seriously saying the root of my desperation came from my realization I put all of my back-up army, the cash reserve, into the valley of death, which if you could pass, would reward you greatly since your backup force could move quickly to your wining position with least efforts. Now XAO just leave a exit for so big swamp of defeated army into the valley of death and could be sure these defeated ones would fill into the valley with the ashes of the burnt money. All of these sacrifices do voluntarily race to the valley.

I just start to realize the market is a war place without bloods. I had believed I understand "when the market is fearful, you should be cheerful" but after this time I felt desperate, I do realize I didn't understand it at all. Warren Buffett could say so since he has the knowledge, experiences, and wisdom to tell the contexts and conditions to buy the value and growth at reasonable price with great cash reserves. He never allows his weapon store without bullets to shoot out to go through the valley of death for his winning destination.

***
I don't have the knowledge, experiences, wisdom, and the necessary intelligent agents to fathom how much of the valley have been filled by the burnt money. So I have to see the market herd has been trapped there and lose all of hopes for their future and then put 20%, 50%, and 70% into the valley and go through the valley without looking around how desperate the herd is since I have not got the nerve to see the debacles!

It is not enough for me to feel confidence, it is not enough for me to see how long the herd has struggled in the market, it is not enough for me to see the anxiety of the herd, I have to learn how to identity the time the herd run away to a exit and a entry to the valley of death hopelessly and desperately!. Once I identify this running away, I have to alert me I only could use 25% initially since future is uncertain and what if the winners in the past was hit by some disasters. Anyone could fail in the war but I have to be survival!

小心驶得万年船: The caution, prudence, and avoidance of the unaffordable risks and loss of necessities, make the chances to run the boat for a thousand year. "Caution is the parent of safety." What would stop you to play in the market? You could not afford. How could you win in the market? You could not win by losing all by taking market as your home. You could not win to run away from the market as the defeated army and generals. You have to go between them!

***
I believe some prudent and patient commanders of their own capital armies are monitoring these failed people into the valleys and measure how much of the traps have been filled by these desperate people and their money.

Unfortunately my experience tell me I have to force myself into survival mood until my cash reserves back to the level I feel safe. However it is great time to see how herd reacts to uncertainties.

I could not take the chances anymore this time, but I should not burn the money as these crazy herd. I start to feel fun to see a live playing of the war without bloods-the market playing, in the stage of defeating and running away for exit, which just lead all into the valley of death!

So everyone in the herd could not get his tomorrow, would you lose your tomorrow too?

Thank you, the herd in XAO! It is great to see you run away without concern of the costs!

 

XAO: surely that thing can be worse...

Future is not sure. But it is sure that the market herd could make everything worse than any assumed worst cases. It has this power and could do so.

Once the herd cheerfully or desperately starts the move to an extreme, it would generate the great fear and greed，which could be contagious and self-reinforcing process. The longer this process the more powerful the momentum to distort the image of the value and fundamental. The great distortion would drive the genius who sound logic into crazy mood.

Market herd in the race to the extreme, doesn't have consciousness so that it could not get itself out of a hysterical psychological mood. It is different from a intelligent individual, who if could be self-aware and environment-aware, could be alerted by his own desperation, find the causes of the desperation, and get out of the desperation. The herd could not do so until it finishes its task the primary instinct, environment, and its sentiment allows. So the irrational exuberance would be seen everywhere in the market.

Since the reinforcing process, it is very difficult to know what consequences the herd movement would result in the worst case. That is why it is very risky to play with the market bust trend, that is you could understand its general pattern but you could not tell exactly what would be the last second the herd would used up its energy by the pattern.

***
As an intelligent market player, you have to be alerted that you could move into the market early before the herd finishes its job:

1. never join the herd since he needs to be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical.

2. be sure that you personal protection is sufficient before you jump into the market when the herd rushes toward the exit

3. be sure that you are not desperate since your early jumping in and the paper losses to the market price and check the fundamental matters for a sure margin of safety of the value.

4. never put all of your back-up forces into the market at one time since the cash would leave the necessary room for you to hold your value and wait for the inevitable recovery after all of the herd lose all they could lose.

The desperate selling is the best friends for 10 baggers from dirty-cheap fishes but they could be the burners of your capital if you buy too higher and could not hold your position. You could be the sacrifices of the stampedes of the herd before they get into the death valley!

***
I became desperate last Friday since I suddenly found I put nearly all of my cash reserve and it seems the herd has not finished its job to burn the money. I don't think I should not buy in, but I should not buy with all of my backup forces. It is a kind of greed to a value investor or market player. It is a mistake and could result in fatal consequences.

It seems that I see the benefit of the fire but play it with bare hand. It is a type of irrationality for a novice value investor or market player. It is a action to break all of the rules to win in the market. It is not a matter about herd and market environment but the losing of the self-awareness and environment-awareness.

The possible fatal consequences shocked me first, desperate me second, and once my consciousness come back I has to work on it to sort out what I should do for a position to protect myself and not to make new mistakes.

In hindsight, I have to admit I became ignorant and arrogant to Mr. market. I forget I just could work within the limitation it allows if I want to accept the profit. I become over-confident and greedy even it has been shown not in the traditional way most of market players like to be. I turned to be idiotic...



***
Seriously saying the losing of self-awareness and environment-awareness is the real and fatal risks. As a human, we could not know enough and we have to know what we could do and what we could not do. You could be knowledgeable but if you just come to the place you would be die, you would die!

We have to know we could be greedy; when we are greedy, we would be less prudent and analytical; when we are not prudent and analytical, we would be less organized and disciplined; when we are not organized and disciplined, we would lose the capability to use what we know and avoid the area we don't know; when we are unable to know what we know and don't know, we would make mistakes which could be fatal. The fatal mistakes could turn the cautious market players to be the losers without shirts.

Once you lose your shirts, you are the losers even you could be genius or wise men or women. It is a war and the future belong to the winners only in the war. The future never belong to the genius and wised if they are the losers at last. It is the cruel part of the market. It is the thrilling part of the war.

However the long-term winners must be wise, intelligent, and never let themselves to break down the rules, principles, and guideline without self-awareness and environment-awareness too long. If you let it last too long you are not wise and intelligent and if you fail along the way you deserve.

***
Naturally high education makes us feel better if we found we are viewed as genius. Don't forget you could be genius but extremely stupid. No genius could be survival in this war without bloods if they could not find what they know and what they don't know.

The reality is we have too many genius who are in the hell now. To be wise we need warning ourselves that we should not be genius and could not be genius. We don't need the glosses for our cleverness. Who see the warriors who just think about whether they are genius or the glossy. You just need to do the necessary jobs to be sure your winning and last laugh among the market players!

Passionate and prudent without losing the hopes and optimism in the market!

 

XAO: market is a war place without bloods but who are you?

Why do you come to the market? Why do you like to lose the money you earned in your workshops and offices? If you dislike to lose the money why do you continue to lose until you could afford them anymore? We need self-awareness and environment-awareness for our future. Do you know what the market is really to you not anyone else? If you could not get a right answers about it, how could you be self-aware and environment-aware?

It is not about anything else but to be sure:

You could know others so that you are intelligent; You could understand yourself so that you are enlightened; you could be able to conquer the causes of the herd movement so that you have the mental force; You could dance on tap to update your mind and skills to master your circles in the market, so that you are able to control yourself and then you are mighty.

So what's the market to you? Do you know what's the war, what's the consequence of the war to anyone in it, and what's the necessities to win in the war?

Generally saying the market is fair to me. If I lose it is my fault; if I just get a winning for one day it is purely lucky; if I could be self-aware and environment-aware, it should result in profit for big enough size and long enough time.

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War, market, warrior, and your options!

If you thought market is a war place and tried to understand the relationship between human nature and war, you would accept a fact that any individual could not control what happen even collectively they drive the market up or down.

It is insane to believe we could escape the damage or revive when the people in the market are in the war.

All of us should know that but few could choose the winning sides always. No one could be in the winning side all of the time in the war. So how couldn't we be in the market when a war is there and get in when we could get butter and milks?

Do feel it is not good way to use any war system to fight in a war since war would destroy the asset and kill or take casualties of the the warriors. So could I never be a warrior but a collector of the gold or gem or pennies in the ruins and bloods of the warriors?

It is extremely dangerous in any war. So there is Chinese words, "为人切莫恃强梁，自古强梁不久长。瓦罐不离井上破，将士难免阵前亡。" It means don't be arrogant and aggressive when you feel powerful and very strong; arrogance and being aggressive could not last long before the failure; the pot used to get the water from the well, is broken around the well, the warriors in odds will die in the war.

So don't join the war in the market under any conditions. It is a basic paradox in the market, isn't it?

Are they fighting furiously? Bull and bear have been in fighting for long time. Too many warriors desperately hope their side would become stronger. Greece would be in default; or Greece would not trigger the global economies; all of great warriors have move themselves into the front line; who would win?; no one really know since you could trust your genius and skills to at a point of the market but the fighting would distort all of your image and assumption!

Let them fighting, make myself to learn when all of them would be tired to fighting; Warriors if tired and bored, they would have nothing to worry but get out of the war for a sleep if they could be alive. Do you want a cup of water? Give a gold coin first! You see the change stronger become weaker and the weaker become stronger without fighting? Unfortunately I didn't follow the life logic and common senses this financial year! I did fight against the bear with too much force and then bear hit me in its will and I just hope and could not do anything to change my situation.

It is stupid to let the thing out of your control, right? It is ridiculous that I put me into the trap when I cheered and pretended I was organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical! A market idiot at least I was in this financial year! It was the fact in the black and white. What could I say? Get my mind sorted out and never allow me to get into the war again! I am not a warrior. right? Of course I am not I was trained to build something for a peaceful life only! Why should I shed my bloods in the war no one could win!

Have to say I still could not be a peaceful market game player since I am still struggle to be or not to be stupid; to be or not to be idiot; to be in control or out of control; 顺其自然,随遇而安: market has its nature and rules to run; know it and don't try to interrupt it in vain and don't just let it go without your observation, judgment where it will go, check again and again about your judgment at a extremely safe position, be happy to read and take care about your life and don't let the fighting in the market affect you any bit, and if some gold is passing by your door by the forces as you expect, don't be shamed to take them into your safe!

Wise market playing should be like fishing with the simplest hook on a rob I do feel! If you could get the fishes for living with the hooks and robs, it is time to get the system to get the fishes in mass production!

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Regular losers, tomorrow is your last day!

No one wants to be a loser but if you are losers naturally you would behave as losers at end of each financial year.

You have got a effective salary cutters in the market successfully. Don't forget tomorrow is the last day of this financial year. If you miss you would wait for a quite long time to feel guilt to stop losses.

Don't worry if you have jobs in offices and workshop but just think about your family a little bit longer. We need to risk our money to make the killing and it is just what the cost we should pay, you may think so, but if it is a regular business behavior for your market playing, you need to sort your mind out!

Could we pay more tax year after year due to our hard work in the market? Why do you enjoy to get less when you dance on tap to work in the market? Why don't cut off the losses and ponder why don't you lock the profit regularly?

Naturally retail market players are insane. Could you be less insane at least and cut less losses at the end of next financial year? Is it sad if you always have some bad and last days in your life? Don't let the last days the normal days of your market life!

I am not beating you as a dog in the water, the market losers since I am a loser too this financial year. I just hate to see the losses and like to see the profit. Money to anyone who work hard is the reward he deserves but life is not always reward hard workers but it makes the chances for anyone to destroy the future and life completely in finance. Don't let it happen to you!

Never and ever forget the last day usually is the desperate and worst day if you are not lucky!

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Greece has made the sellers painful today!

The last day of the selling for tax is a painful day for the sellers. They hope they could sell higher but they could not wait for another day.

The Greece is a part of the pains since they could sell lower than what would be tomorrow. I guess they really hope the sky lower due to Greece since if so they would feel relax to say I am right to sell! However they don't have option since the losses are so significant and the last resort for less tax would be only matter which could let them feel better. Who would sell at the last second? Plenty! Do wonder what would happen after these desperate selling? I am reading the books about market sentiment again. Herd is part of the market environment and the herd is the competitors of value type of market players. We should know them very well.

In hindsight, I feel my strategy to get the dirty-cheap fishes with great discount is right but I need to know the market herd better. Time is not important but everything at last. Could I buy when the last member of the herd sell his holding desperately or despondently in each selling season? I have to since I don't have other option if I want to win for long enough time! If no herd selling anymore, the market should have extremely low bubbles logically!

I do hope someday later I could just buy at the time when the last member of herd gone. It is the time when the herd is extremely weak. I do find my two enemies in the market, one is myself and another is the herd. What the art of war tell us? Hitting the weakest point with a drawing back and strongest fist you could developed. What if the bull bring the herd back to the market? I could not allow me to be forced to follow it toward the cliff. I should learn run away when it tries to drag me into the hell!

All of the above is about the environment. I need some dirty-cheap fishes to be the members of my army to fight with the herd in the every changed market. How to get the trustful warriors? It is a terrible problems since I could not trust each of the dirty-cheap fishes individually. How could I use the weak army in highly organized and disciplined way? How could I trust each of them have some strength to fight but just cost me very little? I need to read and ponder the Art of War again for wisdom and intelligence!
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A trader's chart shocked me out of the trap

Actually a chart has played a very important part in my market playing as shown below:



Sentiment, behaviors, and words to the price movement, are linked together. A type of sentiment needs the word to let the feeling out and the perception in the words decide what we did and expect.

Every time when I made some mistakes in the market I would like to find this chart and ponder what words are best for my feeling and question if I am losing the sense to judge where the market is.

Usually I prefer to read more complains, more blames, and more declaration to sell the shares under the control of the crooks. But since the April 2011, my head become hot when the market shew the sign to be panic but not enough.

1. I didn't buy when too many were cheerful, that is not too bad

2. Actually I didn't buy until I heard people to complain and blamed.

3. But I did overwhelmed by my greed and bought too early and used up all of my cash reserve.

4. But I did give the priority to the tax rather than the profit, which is the another form of greed. I worry to pay more tax and then I did fail to sell for enough.

4. The consequence is that I could not save for tax since all of the profit accumulated since last October gone!

If you are stupid to use wrong arguments to support your deduction or inference, you would be hurt by the consequence. What's the idea for? We have to consider the consequence and try to get good enough consequence. What tax for? Could we get better life to destroy all of profit without paying any tax? I am irrational!

In the market as a small market player, I have to hit out at the worst time and the weakest point of the herd and sell when it recovers from the shocks and takes the control of the market. You could not win over the herd by using the force but you could hit its weakest and run away when it is too strong and powerful. Yes we need to buy value but if we could not choose the right time and the weakest points the herd hold, we would pay too much for value and turn ourselves to be the members of the herd!

The worst time of the herd should be your best time and the best of the herd should be your worst time. Could you hold your strongest position when you are the strong and best and get out before you would be weakest and worst! Whey don't you join the herd? It is a devil and only could lead all into the hell. Before it is in hell it is risky! In this sense, while the herd is selling it moves toward the hell. It is great always in the market if we could be patient, intelligent, and wise.

What if I become a member of the herd? You would be in the hell and it is the fate of the members of the herd! How could I know I am a member of the herd? If you cry or cheer with the words similar in the chart in the similar market price movement, you are! If you dream for quick money, you are? If you don't want to be a master in the market, you should be sine primarily we are the members of the herd! Are you sure? I am absolutely sure since the members of herd have no desire to be self-aware and environment-aware. The get together since the primary instincts for survival and reviving but it never could be reviving since the down to the cliffs is its fate and its members' fate!

So you have to learn how to harness the destroying power of your enemies in your market life!
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Herd and its member: your enemies or customer

Yes, the herd and its member burnt money but they don't or could not force you to burn the money and actually it could mean some business chances.

Could we turn the herds and its members as our customers? I am happy I could raise this question. A great business could be set up just by a simple idea and question!

All in all you should not be a comrade of the herd and members in the market. But you could choose to let them to be your enemies or your customers. They like the thrilling and euphoria and could not understand the business but you could and you could be the best friends out of the business time! It is your chances.

Do remember war is to get more asset for stronger position in the competitive environment and it is only used as the last resort, which said by the Art of war. I have to say I still could not understand so far! How could we do business with the herd and its members?

It is very difficult but if we don't want to fail and burnt down our capital we seemingly have to get the idea how to make money as businessman rather than a warrior.

Naturally, logically, and rationally, I come to the market for money not enemies! I want to be peaceful, profitable, fair, and self-esteem old man to enjoy my game. How? Now I know whom I want to be I should find the solution to provide the services to my customers, the herd and its members.

Today is a good day which could be turning point of my market life! Yes, if you are the members of the herd you are my customers! If you are not the members of the herd you are my business partners! No enemies at all externally but don't forget you still have a enemy, yourself!

You must be nice, never cheating but honest to your customers and your partners but never lose the alert to the power of your enemies. it is a special war to your enemies since it has high intelligence agents to know all about you and if you are in the market, cheat anyone, and blame your customers and partners, your enemies would take the chance to hurt you, if possible your enemies would take your shirts away, and just a handful of wise men and women could win over the enemies in the market for long enough time with great achievement!

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Build your castle: Know UNKNOWN and KNOWN

I feel happy since I have sorted out some basic relationship about myself, the herd and its member, and the self-reliant market players. So the second question logically should be how to make profit for my market playing business by sharpen my mind to know what I know and don't know about myself, my customers, the partners, and the market environment.

Why should I know about KNOWN and UNKNOWN? Are you trying to be analysis paralyzed? No, definitely not! The reality of the market is it is a war place even I don't want to be a warrior and believe I could get more as a business man to service each warrior in this never-stopping war. I need to get my own castle in this war place in case my enemy, myself, drag me into the fighting field barely without any protection. I need this castle with deep moat with a highly protected bridge to the outside.

It is the first step to build your castle from scratch(I started my market playing business as a warrior and I get used to fight, curse, and blame without any ideas about my own castle) by know about KNOW and UNKNOWN and it should be a step I need to do regularly since the market realities are dynamic and I could miss something which is critical for my safety.

The basic logic is today's UNKNOWN could be KNOWN tomorrow or vice versa. Anytime we put ourselves in the UNKNOWN position, we are gamblers! A gambler in the market is a stupid warrior without knowing he needs protection in the war! I don't want to be a warrior to fight with others but I still need to a warrior to fight against my only enemy, myself. You have the enemy who sleep with your at night and then naturally you must be a warrior!

故曰：知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。

So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you can win a hundred battles without a single loss. If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose. If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.

Yes, you could say

知己知彼，百戰不殆,

If you know both yourself and your enemy, you can win numerous (literally, 'a hundred') battles without jeopardy.

But it is untrue!

Don't make a assumption it is a assertion for your sure winning. It is a saying to highlight the extreme importance to know yourself and your enemies for winning in the war. It is the necessary conditions but never be sufficient! You have to remember that Master Sun knew the dangers of overconfidence in strategy. You have to remember it too!

'知己知彼，百戰百勝' ('If you know both sides, you will win a hundred times in one hundred battles') is untrue since in the beginning paragraph of chapter four, Master Sun wrote 'Hence, we can well predict who would win but there is no strategy guaranteeing winning (故曰: 勝可知，而不可為。)'.

Similar verses have also been borrowed—in a manner construing skillfulness as victory "without fighting" – for example:

是故百戰百勝，非善之善者也；不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.

Could you win without fighting to your only enemy, yourself without any desperate fighting? It is extremely important since if you defeat your enemy by damage him physically and financially, you would be the loser!

You should know 兵不厭詐, All warfare is based on deception. Your enemy know your biases and would try all to defeat you. He will use all your biases and cheat you with some glossy and sound-rational assertions for your failure. He doesn't care to die financially with you and would be extremely happy to see you are in the hell. His job is to make you in trouble!

Don't know whether I could force my enemy to take my strength for weakness, and my weakness for strength, and thus will turn his strength into weakness. But I believe I could since there are some examples which show we could defeat our enemies.

That is knowing UNKNOWN and KNOWN first and always which would build a custody to jail your enemy in your castle!

 

In case I forget: I really want you are my partner, my enemy!

A fantastic flash crosses my mind suddenly, that is "why don't I try to turn my only enemy to be my most trustful partner?" It is terrible you have a enemy who just sleep with you every night, isn't it?

1. put this enemy into the custody first

2. learn how to educate him to behave as a warrior to challenge my biases and let me get the margin of safety always

3. set up the plan to let him know what I know and don't know and warn me when I cross the line into the place I don't know but I assume I know.

Man, you are not too bad if you know the following words:

是故百戰百勝，非善之善者也；不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.

And don't limit its logic by its literal meaning. Do you get the point? Yes, Sir!

Yes it is most wise way to get a win-win situation even someone could be your potential enemy if you deal with him unfair. Yes we can logically and yes we should rationally. The key question is how you could let your enemy feel you are wise, intelligent, and would like to take the good advices from him. You could find a way to make your enemy give up the fighting and work with you under some sufficient conditions.

What're these sufficient conditions? I don't know now but I would find them and make them available always. It is happy life you could work with everyone in the war place, is it?

The road map to be masters!

Yes all of masters in their circles have similar tracks, want to win but don't care about their own circle; fail terribly and want to be clever enough; find skills are not good enough for wining painfully; want to be wise rather than just know how to dig a perfect hole as the traps;

go to the basic and go out again without knowing context and condition; go back to the caves for curing the cuts again and again; know he should be self-aware and environment-aware but don't know where to start;

circle around with the wonder how he could break down his own limitation until someday, a flash hit him and he suddenly know something about the life, market, and himself; and then he gets the way to be the master even it takes him too long and too much efforts for it(the hardest part is to turn his only enemy to be his most hard work partner for his final goal with 100% mutual trust). Worthwhile? It depends on who you are and what you want. If you really want something, it is worthwhile!

Do you know what you want? I thought I do know. I want to make my new life which could make me to work in dancing everyday without going to the office before I am in the age of retirement!

Unfortunately most of people could not be patient and tough enough in the way and too many fall down with the regret and stop the journey to get their own personal legend! All sound cliches! Definitely! But could you give them lives by creative usage of them? Don't use our ignorance and arrogance as the weapon to protect you! Never!

 

XAO: traditionally is a cautious house

It is necessary to know your game house so that you could figure out the right tactics to service the herd and its member and get your profit from your service.

Aussie economies are advanced but has limited size, which could not affect the global economies significantly but has to use the chances generated from the super powerful economies while try to avoid any significant risks from these super powerful economies.

It reflects in the performance of XAO for a century or more and current RBA police. In policy Australia is much more conservative than other advanced economies. In market, XAO is cautious to fathom the impact of other super economies to the Australia economies.

1. Since 2000, the old economies have been in its gold age, but the XAO booming is very limited and completely has been pushed down into the bearish mood by GFC and other bad prospective assumption from anywhere.

2. XAO now is not in booming but has been in consolidation for 20 months, even all of the people here worries the resource booming would push Aussie dollar higher and higher and the two-speed economies would make great imbalanced economy performances, but you could not find the appreciation of the booming perspective in the stock market.

3. Any bad things could stir the worries greatly among the market players. But we still have the best economies among the advanced economies. So that one side RBA tries to find any good things to increase the interest rate, the market in another side tries all to find or assume which thing would tip off the Australia economies.

4. US market shows something over-optimism but Australia one seems traditionally shows something pessimism or over-cautious. What's wrong or right is not important but how could we use the special features of Australia stock market to make the profit?

Just get some lessons about self and environment. As a market player, it is hopeless to argue what market should do. It is important to identify the feature of the market we stay and use it for chances and manage risks.

So if Australia could not get out the worries and anxieties without what reasons, the market or XAO would be in consolidation stage. If it would be in this stage, it seems we should not hold our share for years but lock the profit when it is enough.

The risks seemingly are not about the tipping off of Greece, China, Euro, and US but the worries of uncertainties. I am not sure so that I would put me in protection mode. So what if all tipped off and all not tipped off at all to XAO?

So don't forget to buy the discount for value and lock the profit if it is enough for the environment allowing and the strengthening of your financial reality. If XAO is a cautious house, you have to cautious to get your money into your house as it is enough cautiously! It naturally doesn't trust the booming. We have too much troubles since we have too much resources. Could XAO behave a little bit aggressively if we have nothing?

 

Optimism is good but must be guarded

We want to be happy in our life so that we need to be optimism but it must be guarded since it is a attitude matter for life. What you want and what you get are different matters especially in the market.

Generally saying we could be optimism or pessimism both of which show our desire for the future development. So we have to put realism in between them. Not because it is rational or not but if we want to be happy life we could not everyday count what bad things would happen so we should avoid to be pessimism. Why do you work hard? You want your life better or at least not worse. No hope no life. In this sense you have to be optimism; life is good and really good!

However life is good doesn't mean we are trouble free, mistake free, shirt-losing free, or responsibility free. You need to do your job to make the future optimism. You could not lay down everyday with the false belief that life will be good. The good or bad life is in your hand and depend on what you will do!

So when you deal with the things everyday you have to be realism and believe you and human being could find the way to make things better. So optimism is life attitude and should be acceptable in this sense. So realism is the attitude to deal with the what is happening and then we could find the solution to support our optimism and protect our optimism from damage.



I have made a series of mistakes in this financial year. Why? I used the optimism in the wrong place where I have to be realism for the rational and logic risk analysis and get rid of my biases. Should I give up the optimism about the life and my market life? Never but should I be realism and then I could make the profit to guard my optimism!

Life is good and really good since we have the reality to challenge our optimism and test if we could be optimism for our life and be responsible for our optimism!

Remember if you want to destroy your market life you just need to be over-optimism and pessimism for your life! Don't think so? It happens everyday in the market!

Do you worry about idealism in your market playing? No, it is because no anyone in the market could be idealist after the shirts are lost again and again. I like the idealism if I could be optimism and realism in the market. Life is not perfect and just because it is not perfect we feel happy to be idealism when the real problems temporarily have break in our life.

I want to be optimism, idealism, and realism for happy and profitable market life!

All in all, I want to be idealist if I am a happy mood; I want to be optimism when I count on the capital at my 70s and dream how to distribute a huge asset to the poor boys and girls for their education;

I want to be optimism with guard of realism when I analyze, judge, and decide which dirty-cheap fishes I should buy in; I want to be absolutely realism to count the cost for value and discount and the losses and profit from my selling; I want to be absolutely realism when I see the damages and the potential risks; I want to be absolutely realism to make "no loss," 'no harm," and "fail-safe";

I want to be optimism that I would not fight with any one and anyone if not my partners would be my customers in the market; I would like to be realism when I turn the UNKNOWN into KNOWN; I want to be absolutely optimism when I put some affordable and enjoyable money to gamble my lucks!...

Don't forget all of the ***isms are subjective matters which need the objective reality to support. Don't be wrong-ism when the conditions are not available and must be right-ism when you have to be. Don't be pessimism even the reality push you into the corner and beaten you to accept this silly-ism!


Pessimism? Perhaps but I would make it short living in my life!

Could I be pessimism? I believe if the conditions are there I will. I hate pessimism and believe it should not be the main theme of the life.

It should happen to me after I am optimism but have not guard of realism, and then I lose too much which out of my affordability. I would try all to avoid to be pessimism but in life something could be the black swan and bring the thing you don't want into your hand.

I would make it in my hand as short as possible and come back the ***lisms to the better life needs! I have to be responsible for my own life and the services to the life of my customers, the herd and its members, and my partners. If I could give out they needs they would be happy and then I could be happy in my life! No enemies at all; a life with a lot of options; and then it is a good life!

Wdongli's Blog

 

You need the war place to be your game room!

I will not be a market warrior even I recognize it is a war place. So how could we be safe, happy, and revive while we could serve the warriors for our deserved profit in fair? Nearly all of current trading theories are made or propagated for market warriors, wise, clever, genius, or any types of them you could image.

I could not be a great warrior since I don't believe I could be '知己知彼，百戰百勝' (I know all about myself and my enemies and then I will win a hundred times in one hundred battles'). I never got trained to fight for wining or dying, which let me very fearful. I came to the market, a war place, because all told me then I could made a lot of money just by clicking the keyboard. Getting out from the Ivory Tower, I knew suddenly money was the base to settle down in Australia! However I still really hate fighting to the last breath for money! Otherwise I would have robbed a few banks for the money!

Rationally and logically even you could '知己知彼，百戰百勝' you could be extremely unlucky. My experiences tell me if you are not lucky, the things would try all to beat you down. Have you heard somebody chocked to die by a handful of water which he drank for his thirsty? Do you question the rationality of the words, 'Hence, we can well predict who would win but there is no strategy guaranteeing winning (故曰: 勝可知，而不可為。)'. Seriously saying I never dare to question it since when I was an ambitious idealist, I was beaten down every time I questioned it.

So I could say naturally I like the words "Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful(是故百戰百勝，非善之善者也；不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也) but it still means I have to be a warrior, doesn't it? No it has overcome all of immature, instinctive, and primary impulses in our blood. Have you read the book, "The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life?" If yes, do you find Buffett has turned himself from a warrior to a man who just get the money comes to him. Yes, someone would say it is not true, which could be true and then it could be the bases for you to be a great warrior!

I do like to get the money comes to me and I don't need to fight. However it needs a lot of work and effort for you to be the magnet to attract the money to your door. If you could not become a magnet for money, you would die for the dream in poverty. You don't want to be a warrior but love the money, so you are declare that you only have one way to go: a master to attract money! Could you be? Few could be! The war place is the destination of the warriors and there they would die in fighting! So you need to turn a war place to be your game room!

If you could let market be your game room, you could swim as fishes in the sea and fly as the birds in the blue sky, 海阔凭鱼跃 天高任鸟飞. But unfortunately the market is still a place of traps or valley of death for most of its warriors. Could I be exceptional?

http://wdongli.wordpress.com

 

Fear is very powerful!

Fear is very powerful to drive the herd disappeared at the cliffs!

Fear, like many emotions, is very powerful. This affects us mentally and physically; personal and interpersonal consequences can arise from fear. If anyone who had been involved in trading forum before, during, and after GFC, would tell you it is very true.

Euphoria before GFC

Before GFC, XAO represented the resource booming and all of genius and bums, who dared to put the money into any resource stocks, would be the winners. No one were fearful and then all of people under the Sun were mates. No worries mates and let's shopping for money! IT bust was powerful but still could not let the market players in XAO be fearful enough. They played the fire and the fire is very mild and reward the braves! But some losers in IT bust have got the lessons and prepared the wind would make the fire wild! I was one of those who prepared.

Fear and then panic in GFC

During GFC, the fire become wilder and wilder until all of the shares crashed onto the ground. The fears broke up the euphoria; The fear overwhelmed over any residuals of rationalities and logic to most of posters. They blamed, cursed, cried, and predict one tip off after another. They called the MateShip to work together but in the stampeded ruins, who cared about the stupid Mateship, which is valuable only for a society in which everyone has its own financial independence. Nearly all of the market players in all of the trading forums were losers. Most of genius and bums, who cheered in the booming time, just gone.

Not recovered easily from fear and panic

After GFC, the fear become worse and then nearly all of the retail market players missed the train of the V-shape recovery. The 20 months sideline is telling us how powerful the fear once it has been taken by the herd and its members!

Fear is part of our nature and it could force us to get some lessons. However if the fear is too much, it makes the people into anxiety-disorder. If you are really want to see how powerful for the people to change their behavior negatively in the fear and pains, you just read the posts in ShareCafe.

The typical symptom of the overwhelming fears and incapability to deal with the fear wisely and intelligently is blaming, cursing, telling any sign of possible risks without rational analysis of the chances and the affordability of the risks.

Fear is very powerful and once it holds up your soul, you would be forced to choose fighting to die or win; or flee away and all could be the traps for your capital! Both are stupid and could result in unaffordable losses or disappearance from the market!

Know the fear and get the lessons from fears

Don't let the fear grips on your soul too long and don't forget to face ourselves honestly for lessons after we overcome the fears! Don't use any ideas when they are new to you with unaffordable capital. Don't be fighters to prove anything but give the services herd want and really want!

Wdongli's Blog

 

The enemies, warriors, business, & the desperation of the losers

Assume that you have gone through the anxiety, denial, fear, in the a bearish market, if the market continues its downward trend, you should be in desperate mood.

I feel this is turning point of market sentiment of the herd and should put more time and effort to understand it but I just could not find any materials in the net to explain it comprehensively.

Market herd and its members jump into the market because the price has moved up and the hope and optimism are the reasons for them to be in the market. The euphoria at the peak has given them great hope which help them to hold in anxiety, deny what happens, and sustain the pressure of fear. The seemingly unstoppable price down destroy all of they hope and push them to a point:

1. Fight to die or

2. Run away with the losses in shirt-losing size.

Both of ways are not easy and hopeful ways!

However at this point, no too many members of herd could make decision since they are paralyzed in thinking about anything. They fear to fight or run away. Fighting is a way they could not be sure they would win. Running away with the shirt-losing size of losses make them upset and be right up before the window at night!

***
The above assumption is based on you would like to fight as a warrior in the market war. As a warrior, however you are not wise and intelligent to put yourself in a position to lose the freedom to choose the weak point which your external enemies and put yourself in the valley of death to wait for your enemies to drag you onto the slaughter table. So you are stupid and insane.

Without matter what the situation development, you have put yourself in a position to lose and lose heavily. You could complain your enemies plan for your failure and it is not your faults. You could blame someone desperately provide false information and make your lose. You could say your system fails to tell you stop losses. However the bottom line is you fail to collect the information through the trustful agents, analyze the data from the trustful agents in great caution, then misjudge the situation and don't understand the scenarios of the possible consequences, and then you make your decision and put your capital armies in the door of the hell.

As a warrior, you completely fail to do your job. You have to pay the costs for your mistakes. Now you don't have too many options but tow only. What could make a warrior die in the war? No option but in the place to wait for dying!

1. fighting with all, you would lose all if the war trend against you. You already know you could not win in this war at least this stage of the war. That is why you feel desperate. When a warrior feel hopeless, what could wait for him?

2. taking flight with the shirt-losing losses, you could be better off than losing all but it would mean you need a few years to suck your bloods.

What do you feel honestly as a warrior if you are desperately counting which way would make you lose a little bit less, even logically you should not make any new mistakes and take any more losses. However desperation is very powerful and you could lose your mind totally.

Damage has been done and fight to die would let you feel self-esteem and pride as a warrior? Don't forget this war is different. It has no support from anyone else and no mateship or any ideology could be the excuses for your failure.

***
So it is best you don't allow you to be a warrior in the valley of death and know how to protect you without allowing any main forces of your army would move into any valley of death. Do you know why you are in the valley of death now?

Even you don't want to be a warrior, you still need to know the sentiment of herd, hope, optimism(should be over-optimism), thrilling of the winning due to your lucks, and euphoria at the peak are the lures to lead you into the valley of death. Don't forget if no lure no one would like to be in the valley of death for others to slaughter them.

You may want to be a businessman to service the herd, its member, the partners, and so one for your profit but you should know what the herd really want not what they appear to want. Before euphoria after the exciting and thrilling they want your shares for the party and their pride. Could you get your shares ready and sell them to the herd and its member at the market price, the fair price?

Do you get your ideas how to service your customers, the God in the market to you? Don't know? You need to learn how to be a good warrior first, and know how the bad warriors would lose their shirts in the war first!

***
Just curious what if you are the loser? Me? It is not a problem about what if but I am a loser this financial year after I have made a series of mistakes.

What part I was in my market playing as a loser? Are you a warrior or businessman to service the warriors? Honestly I am a failed businessman!

So to a business I have to service my customers and hold what they want to sell and buy what they want to sell. I don't conflict my interests with my customers' one. It is the moral to do your business and make trust from your customers.

Wdongli's Blog

 

Whom you are make or destroy you!

OK, you said you didn't want to be a warrior since you don't want to get any chance to die in the valleys of death. You could not forget what I said

"It is extremely dangerous in any war. So there is Chinese words, "为人切莫恃强梁，自古强梁不久长。瓦罐不离井上破，将士难免阵前亡。" It means don't be arrogant and aggressive when you feel powerful and very strong; arrogance and being aggressive could not last long before the failure; the pot used to get the water from the well, is broken around the well, the warriors in odds will die in the war."

However you need to remember some of us could be excellent warriors but never be good businessmen, such as the members of herd. Whom you are make you to be whom. Could you make dogs to be cats and cats to be birds? No way!

The market playing business like any type of businesses else, make you, survive you, revive you, kill you, annoy you, or totally destroy you. There are something same between the warriors and businessman. That is why "the are of war" are read, pondered, applied around the world. Do you what are the same and what are different?

Don't forget if you are not careful and wise, you could be insane when you call yourself as anything. You could make significant losses when wave the flag, stopping losses. You could be insane when you cry for margin of safety; you could run your lovely systems into the valleys of death and use your capital to protect a useless system when it becomes your capital grave. You could be anxious, ignorant about the cost or risks, fearful as others, desperate by putting you in a hopeless position, panic to run away, and lost in the ruins under the signs of SALE ON FIRE.

Do you know the sentiment of human being? Do you know what's the meaning of SALE ON FIRE? Do you know why a businessman would be very happy to SALE ON FIRE? Do you know why so many clever men and women with high degrees but fail to get any cents in their business venture? You feel very good, act based on your feeling, expect all of the customers including the warriors, would buy anything from a business-stupid businessmen or women, and drum to your bank for your easy money?

Too many business men or women are stupid with all to support their feeling but has nothing to matching the business with the realities!

Genius are the bums at last if they act based on the feeling which stirs by the market sentiment!

小心驶得万年船: The caution, prudence, and avoidance of the unaffordable risks and loss of necessities, make the chances to run the boat for a thousand year. "Caution is the parent of safety." Do you know it is about the right attitude to fight the way out of the valley of death? Do you know it is about the right attitude to do your business? It means you have to be very organized, disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant, which mean you have to 知己知彼 or self-aware and environment-aware.

If you don't know yourself and what the environment allow, you would be insane and then you lose all to be organize, disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant. You would never touch your goal. You would be the losers in war or business or whatever you are doing.

Do you feel better now? No? You would be in trouble! Why? You are too common, as moms and dads, in the war place, and you just could be followers and could not be leaders for yourself. You don't have the "大将风度!" You don't know the art of war or the art of business! Do you believe any mechanical system could make you to have the "大将风度?"

You would wonder what is the "大将风度," wouldn't you? Let's see what it means:

1. determined by questioning the rationality of different scenarios for chances and risks balance, and picking up the right solution strategically for long term benefit, happiness, and profit.

2. having a open mind, wide knowledge, being able to focus on the vital few and delegate the trivial many to trustful people, enjoying to work with the capable genius but don't allow them to damage the goal when they feel extremely good to put themselves into the valley of death

3. having gut and capability to solve the problems which have made a lot of the genius lost the shirts or trapped somewhere around.

All in all, 大将风度 is the characteristics and personality made by the art of the war! Have you seen any great warriors or businessmen cry in the storm and ruins? So when you say this or that is being tipped off, are you crying or tell you could not win when all are the losers? If yes, your mind needs to change for your safety!

If you blame, you should blame yourself. Whom you are make you! The cat, the dog, the swan, and so on! Is it important you are warrior or businessmen? Not at all if you have the art of the things you play in your hand. All of great artists make their name and the goals while most of so-so genius artists struggle to know what life and art are about!

Wdongli's Blog

 

It is really, really scared

Feel the real danger to lose your shirts or die financially?

When there is real danger, or when we believe there is danger, our bodies go through a series of changes called the fight/flight response. Basically, our bodies are designed to physically respond when we believe a threat exists, in case we need to either run away, or stand and fight.

Ready to run away or fight physically

Some of these changes are:

1. an increase in heart rate and strength of heart beat. This enables blood and oxygen to be pumped around the body faster.
   
2. an increase in the rate and depth of breathing. This allows more oxygen to be taken into the body.
   
3. an increase in sweating. This causes the body to become more slippery, making it harder for a predator to grab, and also cooling the body.
   
4. muscle tension in preparation for fight/flight. This results in subjective feelings of tension, sometimes resulting in aches and pains and trembling and shaking.

Rationality and absurdity to run away or fight

Yes, if the risks are huge and can destroy you, you have to run away as quick as you can; but if the risks are false and the environment is too complex to sort out, you should choose to fight for holding your position. Who said the herd and its members are stupid? They just have the mind to figure out the risks are true or false.

What if Greece in default?; What if Japan's reactor shed the fatal radiation too strong for China, Australia or much more worse?; what if US is in double dip and we have the shares in hands? what if Australia property just collapses?; what if the flood last for years in Queensland?; what if...

In the market, you always have too many things you ask the question, what if, but you really don't know. Who knows everything? So the herd and its members follow the past and they also have got their time to be optimism, exciting, thrilling, or even enjoy the euphoria they really love. What's the life? You should be happy if you get what you want! The question is how long!

You have to know all the herd and members know are those from the cake in the sky or Sun appearance in the sky, or from very poor rear view mirror! So it is obvious that they don't know the future. Since they don't know and feel the danger is looming and the consequence could be too serious to hold.

Fight to the last drop of bloods if they want to try their lucks or run away with anything they just could not dare to lose!

What they could see in the market crash and what their mood allow them to see

Could you image what they could see? The warriors of the market fall down while the city and street have been bombed by this or that explosive events. The buildings fall down one after another. The money has been burnt into the ashes in billions. They already have feel the anxieties; they already have tried to deny what really happened; they already have in fear that the thing could be much worse; The worse things become worse and then they have been in desperation for sometimes; Do you know what the meaning of hopeless to anyone in the life? Why don't you stop your life? You could not be hopeless!

The shocks and bad events so big and then you are shocked out from the desperation! No I could not die. All of the animals have the desire to be survival even the chances are just from lucks. They have to choose running away or fight to the last drop of bloods.

So panic turn to be the main stream of the market sentiment. More and more feel is is useless to fight and choose to run away... They run and run just for running away instinctively! Have you seen a desperate army run away, stampede by itself, ruin everything they have, and jump down the cliff without any hesitation! 兵败如山倒（if the army runs away desperately, it is so powerful as that which could push down a great mountain such as Mont Everest!



What is the truth when the army runs away desperately?

When we become anxious and afraid in situations where there is no real danger, our body sets off an automatic biological “alarm”. However, in this case it has set off a “false alarm”, because there is no danger to ‘fight’ or run from.

And then we come into a loop to reinforce what we feel, believe, and see and make most of things we feel, worry, believe, and see, worse and worse until something happen to shock the herd, us, out of the loop.

Why do they put themselves into the panic? Whose responsibility for the panic? Could be never in the panic loop as a General or Commander for your army? Do you know you are criminals to let your capital armies to run away desperately into the valley of death!

兵败如山倒，残存路已尽: if the army has been run away desperately, no one could find the way for survival! All would be gone except those the army could not bring down to the hell!



It is your turn and life is good again!

Are you the warriors in this running away army? No? Congratulation! It is your turn to service the survivors with the foods and waters to help them to be recovered. Of course it is in the market without bloods and the deal must be fair! The better you service the survivors, the more the profit! Wonder how to get 10 baggers? It is easy to get the gold as the price of the same size of Iron craps in the ruins.

You help the survivor and you would be rewarded morally and financially! Life is good to you! What systems to launch the rocket for now? They are craps since the winners of the war already lose too much too! You put yourselves in a position to win and win all you could afford!

Life is good! And quite possible you would wonder why life is not good to a good people who is not greed but just try to service the herd and its members!

But don't be too happy and become euphoria. There are some time-bombs around. Do you have the skills to identify them and put the heavy protection system around your humanism activities?





Are you sure you are 100% safe? This financial year a few of my death squads just have been damaged terribly by the time bombs!

No free lunch in the market even we all could get it from Centralink if we unfortunately are the survivors in the war!
Wdongli's Blog

 

XAO: lead the second GFC crash?

This time is different from the peak time before GFC when the media becomes crazy for the possible US default. Don't know what would be in future exactly and don't want to cry or cheer for it now but do want to see the difference XAO acts now and then:

1. XAO seemingly is very happy to lead the crash now. It doesn't believe any decoupling theories any more. Its price drops down to the range of the lowest price of its correction or consolidation channel.

2. It didn't believe US dow bull could save it any more too. Before the default drama, it has cut your feet bit by bit.

3. It doesn't trust Aussie's capability to run two speed economies too. It worries anything good or bad and prepare to run away as it can!

4. It looks it would run negatively than any boys in this global market again. Aussie warriors are coward naturally. It is a feature of XAO.

If you are business people to service this coward warriors in Australia, you have to know it very well. They are coward and then you have to wait for the time when they are much more depressed in the war time than anyone else around the world. Don't follow the criers but get a self-reliant idea to buy the gems from these warriors at their happy price and sell the ticket to the valley of death to them as high as they would like to pay!

Don't mark our expected price on the shares for them. We need to know them better than themselves! It is the job of a trading/investing business and then we should not just cry for the looming risks now but think how we could buy when all of Aussie warriors surrender and give up. They will since they have limited money to burn on the fire.

Could we time the absolute worst time by checking their sentiment as a whole? Today XAO was 4500, right? Could it be 3500, or 1000, or 100 or zero? It is interesting to image what if XAO is zero!