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Trading XAO: We are very clever in short term but...

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 17th Jun, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    What could you see in near future and long future? It is best we could see the true future but we could not and then we look back to find the clues. What do the clues mean? You could be right or wrong from the clues. How could we get the clues with the risks to lose the shirts?

    Some said they have great system and deny that any systems, if used to anticipate the future, just give you some clues about the future. Not sure and if you take the clues as sure future image, you would lose the shirts sooner or later.

    What could the past in sight of the market tell us in last three years? What are the most vivid images of the market in your mind? The sky would fall down. The world are full of crises.

    You see Greece would be default; US would be in double dip; China is at the tipping points; Middle East is in revolts; and nowhere seems good even Australia has the looming crises in house, huge hole everywhere after resources booming would be gone; and volcano ashes could bury the lovely world...

    You could not argue with these gloomy dormers. They could be right and perhaps perfect right. Who knows what really happen tomorrow?

    But I do wonder if WWI, WWII, Cold War, and all of disasters in the last 100 years could not destroy this lovely world, I don't believe I would be so unlucky to see the end of the modern civilization.

    A lot of people dislike the word, speculation, but actually we have to bet based on our world and market view and philosophy. I prefer to choose being optimistic with the guard of something worse than "normal un-lucks!"

    Something if worse enough would motivate something else to let this something better. The key is how could we identify the worst point and enjoy to run under the rising Sun to make the life and market profit.

    It is you to choose the options in the market. It is you to make your future. In this sense, you must be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytic for your options.

    When you curse something to ruin your life and money, you put yourself in the sink and perhaps in the hell!

    Happy to see my portfolio is still priced more than October 2010 and hope it could get one or two 10 baggers in next financial year.

    Based on my statistical calculation and probability distribution charts it is very likely even I never believe we could be sure for anything in the market and future.

    By the way market deflation is much quicker than inflation of its price. 20 months are long time and XAO has been corrected for so long. Could it take another 20 months to introduce more discount? Let's see.

    Wdongli's Blog If you want to come back you could click "InvestEd" under "BlockRoll" there.