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XJO Graphs

Discussion in 'Shares' started by Tropo, 20th May, 2006.

  1. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    To illustrate what the difference is between volatile market and trending up market, have a look at below monthly chart (each bar represents one month).
    As you can see from Apr 2000 to Mar 2003 (between point "A" and "B") XJO was moving in the range of approx. 877 points (between the two parallel yellow lines).
    In Mar 2003 XJO broke up and is trending up ever since (between resistance and support lines) gaining an amazing 2714 points.
    The S.N. system, set to trade volatile market, is the most efficient during such times (2000-2003).
    Even with trending up market in the last 3 years (S.N. system in not set to trade trending market) S.N. was still able to deliver a healthy 20% return per year.
    I agree that 20% is not an amazing figure (personally I do not have a problem with 20% at all) but if we get a volatile market then NI fund may/should deliver even better returns (IMHO).

    The second is a weekly graph (one candlestick = one week) which represents XJO trending up for the last few years.
    As you see the last resistance line was broken at point "A".
    Currently XJO is pulling back within the channel that was created in the last 3 + years.
    If bottom line of this channel (support line) is broken we may get correction in the market.
    But as long as XJO is having "fun" between those two lines the market is still in no danger of correction (IMHO).
    :cool:
     

    Attached Files:

  2. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Tropo,

    Just wanted to say thanks for those charts mate! Great stuff. I've seen a few, and obviously track the XJO myself, but yours with the channels included are pretty neat. I sitll don't know how to interpret the candle sticks so maybe you could post a beginners guide to candlesticks and intra-day trading... ;)

    Good stuff,
    Michael.
     
  3. -T-

    -T- Well-Known Member

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    Candlesticks just show the high at the top, the low at the bottom and depending on the colour, the open and close form the top and bottom of the body of the candlestick. That first graph isn't really a candlestick graph, but I guess it's the same idea. The small branches are showing the open and close and usually green means it closed higher and red means it closed lower (than it opened).

    As for candlestick patterns/charting: I personally think the major formations can be seen in other types of graphs and the more detailed formations are really for more detailed tech trading. To be able to spot and act upon candle formations really easily, I think you need to make it your life. :)

    That's just what I know of them, I may be wrong, but some of that should at least be right :D
     
  4. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Michael,
    I am glad you like it

    Do not worry about candlesticks. I just forgot to switch candlestick chart to the bar chart.
    For purpose of this exercise totally ignore candlesticks on the second graph ( it does not matter you use candlesticks or bars). Imagine that they are bars as per first graph.
    Beginners guide (very basic one) to candlesticks pattern you may find here :
    http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html

    Intraday trading (day trading) it's another story. A lot of books was written about it alone.
    Unless you ask a very specific questions I am unable to give you a sensible answer.
    Try read one of the books on this subject such as : " The Stock Trader " by Tony Oz. In this book you'll find approx. 116 real trades fully documented including the charts, illustrations and formulas.
    Stay :cool:
     
  5. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Tropo,

    Thanks for your graphs, I appreciated them.

    ----

    All,

    To the traders here (or those who did trade), what sort of percentage returns could I expect if I was a decent trader? I mean, I want to learn how to trade, and make it a career. But I should only expect 20% returns p.a. then I might as well give my money to Platinum and sit back on the beach instead.

    If the answer is that I should/could (?) expect, say, 40% returns then why hasn't put their trading into a managed fund, charge a commission and make millions?
     
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Not many can trade successfully, using candlestick chart alone.
    The candlestick chart was developed in Japan around 1750 and is closely related to the bar chart. Structure of the candlestick consist of four major prices: high, low, open, and close.
    At the most basic level candlestick charts are easier to view (read) than bar charts, also candlestick charts provide some unique patterns and trading signals.
    All information in a bar chart is included in a candle charts. But both, bar chart and the candlestick chart is unable to trace every price movement during a day's activity. After all it's personal preference which chart is in use (I use candlestick chart most of the time)
    If you are more interested in candlestick charts, I would recommend a book "The Secret Of Candlestick Charting" by Louise Bedford, and "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison.
    :cool:
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Glebe,

    I like your idea of doing nothing and making millions. :p I am still working on it ;)
    But ....Life is not meant to be easy !!!.
    Problem is that you can not tell what your return may be in say...the next 12 months (40%, more or less) as a private trader or as a fund manager.

    Another question is, what kind of return you may expect from say...Platinum if times get tough? :eek:
    If you are private and competitive trader you can outperform every Fund, day in day out.
    Good pro private traders are able to trade successfully almost every market ( options, futures, currency etc) not only Stock Market and some of them which I know, made between 60-100% a year for the last 5-6 years. They are able to get this kind of return, because this guys trade not only the Stock Market.
    What return you can expect from your own trading (if you decide to go this way) depends on how disciplined you can be, and the only way to know it is....to start trading yourself and learning from your own mistakes.

    Until than...Keep $miling :D