Join our investing community

Trading You lose in both good and bad time?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 10th Apr, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Is it good time of Australia economies? Some said it is but is it your view of Australia economies? I guess you may or may not think so especially you are in a right business of a wrong economic sectors.

    If you are a trader or investor, what's your views of the Australia economies? It sounds a bull-shi* question but think about it a little bit longer which would benefit for your profit.

    The history has told us Australia truly has enjoyed a Goldilocks economy these past 20 years. Is it true? If so why I could not see the light in the medias and trading forum. Who are wrong?

    ***
    Generally saying both bust and boom burn the money down from traders' hands. How many people here have accumulated enough profit in the staggering resource boom before GFC in Australia stock market? If it is not at all it should be very few.

    IT boom and its mechanism, internet, have declared too many victims. Have you met anyone who boasted his glazing profit around dinner tables between 2001 - 2008? Too many just have too many painful experiences in the stock market. Their market experiences are that they have been beaten down by the stock market again and again!

    These losers have lost their minds, guts, and their money! How about me? I am a loser too even I didn't lose my capital even a cent but I didn't get the income for the efforts I put into the waves, lines, and patterns.

    ***
    "There are now 38 year-olds who haven't been through a recession in Australia!" medias said and some go further to conclude that it seems the time all of Aussies who missed the lessons about recession would have the chances to experience it.

    It sounds very terrific, recession, everyone being unemployed, little money for food, and everything doomed. And the assertion with some words full of logic even no one be sure they are used in right contexts and conditions: "Like it or not, humans are emotional animals. Our reliance on the immediate past means that in times of optimism, we don't foresee an end to the good times. When times are tough, we have a hard time seeing an end to the difficulties."

    Do you know details are the devils to know the logic and common senses? Few can link a lot of separate and view-angle-based logic and common senses into their calculation! Why did Charley Monger say we need to invert, invert, and keep to invert?

    ***
    There are too many guys are cursing RBA. These old big boys just refuse to lower the rate without caring about the dire of our economies, some cursed disappointingly! I hope it lowers the rate as US did but I feel it is right for Australia as a whole.

    Not everyone can do the same things with the same result. When I read the posts and article complained Warren Buffett misled the market, I just laughed for fun. He has billions of dollars and you have nothings, right? He misled you? Ants vs Elephant, right? NO? BS at end!

    US can do, China can do, but Australia should not do, or Aussie can do but China and US cannot do! Why? I don't really care about except the underlying logic. So Aussie can not enjoy the zero rate, which is out of its affordability! Still could not get the points, it is sad!

    ***
    Australia as a whole is very wise and clever due to its self-awareness and environment-awareness even Labor's carbon tax has nothing with these awareness. Why do you insane, mad, and crazy? The less awareness the more insane, mad, and crazy you are!

    We have to avoid the boom and bust we could not afford. 5.2% unemployment and greed on resource return are alarming. RBA needs to force the air out of the fire: the rate has to be used to smooth out the excesses of both unbridled optimism and despairing pessimism.

    RBA are a institute of human being, which could make mistakes. Actually it gets the airs from the warriors in the ruins of the stock market too. In the last 40 years, it forced the economies out of hot air and cold water earlier rather later. So that the traders can lose the money in the stock market with the income from their salaries or pensions!

    ***
    Don't tell anyone you're not fortunate or that the combination of policy, intervention and circumstance has been anything less than an absolute blessing. Why do you lose your shirts? It is very obvious that you are insane, crazy, and hopeless!

    A drop of water can kill a man, right? Don't curse the water if you unfortunately die in the water! The average life and unemployment numbers mean little if you're the exception that you prefer to be choked to die by a drop of water. Do you know market is the core of capitalism? Do you know the forces of capitalism that are uncompromising, yet beneficial in balanced societies: 'creative destructive forces?'

    Your losses are great to the economies since the stock market would provide the low cost capital for business due to your contribution! Winners need the contribution from the losers too!

    ***
    Three points need to be remembered:

    1. Good business emerge stronger

    2. Foolish take-away

    3. Wise hands enjoy warrior service business at low cost only!

    I still could not be a wise hand which frustrate me very much but I am sure I am not a foolish anymore as that in IT boom and bust!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Do you stop losses now?

    DOW shed down 214 points yesterday. What will XAO do? Down somewhat points is a sure thing but what would you do? Stop the losses? Yes, if you just buy after DOW at 13,000 around with the hope it could go up, you would be in gut crunching. How about me? I have sold most of my shares which was in profit and I worried to lose.

    Selling is a art and this art should be based on the value, residual margin of safety after the price increases, and crowd sentiment. When the crying turns into cheering for light, your value and margin of safety would be challenged and then you have to fine tune yourself for balanced portfolio.

    Don't know where DOW would go but guess it is at a very critical point, which will affect the crowd sentiment greatly. In my view, after 13,000 was broken negatively, a lot of quick minds and hands have to stop losses, which would add the pressures to everyone for decision for holding or selling.

    ***
    Price is moved by sentiment of the crowd in short-term. Within a huge rollers-coaster of the stock market, no too many could make judgment wisely based on daily price movement.

    As retail or individual traders, they usually have some computer system but they could not get enough feedback for their system even some of them declare so. All they could do are stare at the lines and charts for patterns. What patterns do you find today? Not very pleasant!

    For a while someone has predicted something everyone can do: 13,000 was a resistant line, became support line, and now turned to be resistant line; if the resistant line broken, all could be in trouble or have to stop losses.

    ***
    I hope XAO could follow DOW to drop and it is best XAO could lead the world into another GFCII rushing. I know some of traders would curse on my words. It is not my fault. I have sold my shares for profit now I need to buy for margin of safety.

    If XAO could not drop down dramatically I could not get the margin of safety. It is sad to sit on the side line too long; it is wrong to buy something at higher cost than normal; it is insane if the cost of buying is too dear; so for my self-interest not anyone else I hope XAO comes back to 3800 or at least 4000!

    Could my hope becomes true? I don't know and don't need to worry about. What I will do is to listen the ABC news to get a excellent ears for English first, listen "the intelligent investor" second, only buy with good enough margin of safety, and sell if the profit worry me and make me right up in the night.

    ***
    Mind updating to me is to get a very colorful brain for a fail-safe operation in even worst market case. It would set a basis for my second working life for a retirement with good enough income stream from stock market.

    It not easy to make money. It is extremely hard to get money from the stock market. It is a challenge for your personality and disposition. You could not be a hooligan. You could not be a mad. You could not be stupid. You could not be a genius with lines and patterns only.

    What should you be? I have to be strategist with the gut, disciplines, analysis, self-reliance, and useful knowledge for profit. Could I? I don't know but I will try with my life since it is my choice.

    ***
    Life is good in the market if you don't need to stop losses but just worry about when to lock the profit. I didn't think about too much on how to lock the profit not long time ago and usually let the paper profit gone.

    Could I make profit, never make losses, and lock the profit? It sounds impossible if I continue to do the same things in the old road even the field is the same. How to roll my little snow ball while it could pick up more and more pieces of snow in a absolute safe road?

    I have to do some simulation to roll the snow ball. How about to use the logic in my self-learning course in English so that I could feel rewarded bit by bit? Human needs the rewards for what he wants to do? No one can escape from this!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 11th Apr, 2012